The 2024 election may be over, but it is safe to bet that Gov. Josh Shapiro — whose national ambitions are well known — already has his eyes set on 2028. As Pennsylvania enters the final legislative session of his term, Shapiro should avoid putting the presidential cart before his gubernatorial horse.

Shapiro entered office two years ago promising bipartisan leadership and committed to work with Republicans in the state Capitol. He campaigned telling voters he would take on the big fights and pledged to deliver on policies with broad bipartisan support, including tax cuts and Lifeline Scholarships for kids in failing schools.

Despite the hype about Shapiro’s talent as a politician, he’s proven unskilled and ineffective at governing. His first two years in office tell a story of a stunning lack of accomplishment, abdication of leadership, and betrayal of trust with the legislature.

Halfway through his term, Shapiro’s record fails to measure up to his campaign rhetoric. The biggest obstacle? His fellow Democrats in the Pennsylvania House. Since becoming the majority party in the commonwealth’s lower chamber, House Democrats have stymied legislative productivity, leaving the governor with few accomplishments to hang his hat on.

With little to show from his time in office, will Shapiro finally take the lead and deliver on his commitments?

No one can predict the future, but the past offers some insights. So, let’s take a ride into recent history and remember the twists and turns of this drama that began in November 2022 — a story marked by conflict, scandal, betrayal, and even death.

The Speaker Debacle and Parliamentary Shenanigans

This past week, the opening day of the new legislative session convened with the traditional pomp and circumstance. But this recent episode starkly contrasts the previous two years of political dysfunction, intrigue, drama, and gamesmanship.

In 2022, Pennsylvania Democrats flipped the state House for the first time in a decade, but their narrow majority was precarious. The death of one elected member and the resignation of two others — all before the 2023–24 legislative session started — quickly undercut Democrats’ ability to govern.

So, who was in charge of the Pennsylvania House?

Enter state Rep. Mark Rozzi as the tiebreaker. In a last-minute deal, the House elected Rozzi, a little-known backbencher Democrat from Berks County, as the House Speaker. Rozzi won over Republican support with a pledge to not caucus with his party and govern as an independent.

Following his election as Speaker, Rozzi took to the rostrum and declared, “The commonwealth that is home to Independence Hall will now be home to this commonwealth’s first independent House Speaker. I pledge to caucus with neither the Republicans nor the Democrats. My staff will be made up of people from both parties.”

Yet, before that day ended, Rozzi betrayed that promise. In a private meeting with the House Democratic caucus, Rozzi reassured his colleagues that he would remain a Democrat. At the same time, his website announced him as the “Democratic Speaker of the House.”

Having upended his party’s plans and shattered his brief alliance with Republicans, Rozzi lasted only 56 days as speaker. Fellow Democrats orchestrated a mutiny, forcing Rozzi to resign and replacing him with Joanna McClinton, a Philadelphia Democrat from the party’s progressive wing, as the new Speaker.

Though Rozzi’s speakership was brief, he delivered on Democrats’ top priority: shutting down the House until his party could secure their slim majority after the special elections. As his first official act, he upended parliamentary procedure, recessed the House, and locked the doors to the House chamber to prevent lawmakers from gaining access. Without allowing a motion or vote to adjourn, Rozzi also thwarted a vote on the operating rules required for the chamber to function.

House Democrats Hold the Budget Hostage

During the months leading up to the 2023–24 state budget’s June deadline, Shapiro negotiated a deal with Pennsylvania House Democrats and Senate Republicans.

The $46 billion proposal was loaded with big spending priorities for Democrats. In exchange, Republicans made one request: for Shapiro to honor his campaign promise of enacting Lifeline Scholarships for students attending Pennsylvania’s lowest-performing schools.

But before the deal could pass, a coalition of government unions — top donors to Shapiro and Pennsylvania Democrats — activated to oppose Shapiro’s promised scholarships. During the 2021–22 election cycle alone, House Democrats received $2.8 million from government unions.

Union influence extends throughout the party leadership, sometimes even creating conflicts of interest. Rep. Matt Bradford, the Democrat’s House Majority Leader who received more than $200,000 from teacher unions, also received personal compensation as a lawyer representing many of the school districts he votes to fund. In 2018, Bradford received public flak for failing to disclose this personal conflict.

When these unions demand lawmakers jump, Democrats ask, “How high?”

Under pressure from his union backers, Shapiro betrayed his promise and line-item vetoed the program, but not until after he had misled Senate Republicans into passing the appropriations package.

But as Shapiro moved to claim victory on timely completion of his first budget, the rookie governor soon realized he’d declared “mission accomplished” before the job was done. Having failed to enact the key fiscal code bills authorizing spending for his budget package, Shapiro was quickly outmaneuvered by state Senate Republicans. Kim Ward, president pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate, stuck to her guns and demanded he deliver on his promise.

Shapiro’s unwillingness to exercise political muscle to get his bipartisan deal across the finish left the governor with a black eye: a historic six-month-long budget impasse. Though the political cost for Shapiro was high, the cost to Pennsylvanians was greater. The protracted stalemate left about $1 billion in public funds for essential programs, such as hospitals and mental health programming, in limbo.

At a time when Pennsylvanians needed leadership most, Shapiro didn’t lift a finger to end the impasse. Still, he did manage to blame others. At a July 6th press conference, Shapiro skirted his responsibility as governor, announcing he would no longer attempt to reach a deal with his party, declaring, “It’s now the responsibility of the House and Senate” to negotiate a completed budget. He also called Lifeline Scholarships, the very reason for the budget impasse, “unfinished business.”

During the impasse, House Democrats did what they do best: nothing. Rather than negotiate without their one-seat majority, they opted to close shop, recessing for an extended summer vacation between July and September 2023 and again from December 2023 through March 2024. Each time, the party crafted thinly veiled diversions, such as the infamous “leaky roof” in the state Capitol, to justify their hiatuses.

By the time the budget impasse ended, the damage was done. By blowing up the budget process, House Democrats revealed how unions, not kids stuck in failing schools, dictated their agenda.

Moreover, House Democrats not only embarrassed themselves but also their ally in the governor’s mansion. Because of the resulting political gridlock, Shapiro resided over the least productive legislative session in the last 50 years of Pennsylvania’s history.

Yet, Shapiro has only himself to blame. His failure to lead his party and state leaves many wondering if he can succeed in a higher office—something Shapiro wants.

Mr. Shapiro Goes to Washington? Not so Fast.

Despite his lack of productivity and leadership, Shapiro still garners national attention. The national media has devoted a significant amount of attention to Shapiro, whom some pundits have praised as a “Democratic rising star,” “Superman,” and “the Dem’s next darling.”

In 2024, this national notoriety catapulted Shapiro as one of the leading candidates to serve as an eleventh-hour running mate for Vice President Kamala Harris.

But the public is wising up to Shapiro’s abysmal record. In recent polling, when asked if the governor has delivered any significant accomplishments during his time as governor, 54 percent of Pennsylvania voters said either “no” or “unsure.” Those who answered “yes” struggled to identify any specific Shapiro milestones other than the quick repair of I-95 in July 2023—a rebuilding effort that had less to do with the governor and more with the federal government backing it (which didn’t stop Shapiro from taking credit for in the Washington Post).

Shapiro’s inaction earned him the title of “the least productive governor in Pennsylvania history.” During his first year and a half in office, Shapiro only signed 111 bills into law. Comparatively, his predecessor, former Gov. Tom Wolf, who faced opposition in both chambers, signed 172 bills during his first year and a half in office.

Shapiro often blames this lack of productivity on Pennsylvania’s divided legislature. “I’m the only governor in the nation with a divided legislature,” tweeted Shapiro. However, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin—who also presided over a divided legislature—enacted about 16 times more bills than Shapiro during the same period.

The 2025–26 legislative session presents Shapiro’s last chance to demonstrate that he can deliver the leadership and policies he pledged to voters. Doing so requires getting his house in order — literally. Shapiro will need to rein in his Democratic colleagues in the state House.

But the governor needs more than Democrats to move forward. Shapiro must also work across the aisle with Pennsylvania Republicans to honor his commitments. After his past betrayals, Shapiro has several political fences to mend.

Despite embracing the façade of a so-called “moderate,” Shapiro’s rhetoric does not match reality. Until he demonstrates genuine bipartisanship to — in his words — “get sh*t done,” Shapiro’s record will be that of an ineffective, partisan, tax-and-spend liberal.

The governor will deliver his annual budget address on February 4th. Which Shapiro will show up: the version sold to voters on the campaign trail or the photo negative that has failed to deliver over the last two years?

The governor’s future national ambitions depend entirely on what he chooses to do with this moment.

Erik Telford is the Senior Vice President of Public Affairs at the Commonwealth Foundation, Pennsylvania’s free-market think tank.