Even before he is sworn into office in January, Donald Trump has firmly secured a prominent place in American history books.

He is only the second president in U.S. history elected to two nonconsecutive terms.

The road to that outcome was a long and winding one.

It was also a road where Trump repeatedly challenged conventional wisdom and proved it to be wrong at every step of the way.

Below is a recap of conventional wisdom (CW) from the 2024 presidential election with conventional wisdom being defined as a widely accepted assumption and prediction.

Below each conventional wisdom is a recap of actual outcomes relative to conventional wisdom.

CW: Donald Trump was finished in politics due to being impeached twice in the U.S. House of representatives during his first presidential term, federal criminal indictments (still pending), and state felony convictions (still being appealed).

OUTCOME: With a combination of resilience, determination and perseverance, Trump triumphed over fifteen Republicans for the Republican party’s 2024 presidential nomination.

CW: In a June debate between Biden and Trump, both would deliver solid performances.

OUTCOME: Biden’s debate performance was arguably the worst in history.

CW: Despite his debate performance, Biden would stay in a reelection grudge match with Trump.

OUTCOME: In September Biden abruptly withdrew his bid for reelection and immediately endorsed Kamala Harris, a move that led to her being the Democratic Party’s standard bearer.

CW: Harris would not do well in her only debate with Trump.

OUTCOME: Harris exceeded expectations which gave her campaign a much-needed boost.

CW: There would be at least one “October surprise” from the Biden administration.

OUTCOME: An “October surprise” came early but not from the Biden administration. It came in July when Trump narrowly escaped death from an assassination attempt.

CW: Harris could mobilize support from women voters with two campaign messages. One was a message used very effectively by Democratic candidates in the 2022 midterm elections – vote against Republicans as they are not pro-choice on abortion. The second message was now women voters had another opportunity to elect a woman as President of the United States.

OUTCOME: More women than the Harris campaign expected concluded that the state of the economy and high levels of inflation were their top concerns. Concurrently, they also concluded that despite electing a woman for President of the United States was a long-awaited opportunity, Kamala Harris was not that woman.

CW: Trump would experience the same lack of support from working class voters, urban voters, Black voters, young voters, Asian voters, and Jewish voters that Republican presidential candidates have historically experienced.

OUTCOME: Trump’s support from all these groups exceeded all expectations. He won the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as well as four other “swing states.”

CW: Despite being fiercely loyal to President Biden and all of his progressive policies for almost four years, Kamala Harris could tell voters she would be a very different President than Biden.

OUTCOME: Voters rejected that messaging after Harris answered a question on what she would do differently from President Biden with – “Nothing that I can think of.” U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders also cast aspersions on her integrity when he said publicly Harris was a progressive who would say whatever she needed to say to get elected.

CW: Kamala Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz, could help offset Trump campaign messages that Harris has been and is a radical San Francisco California progressive. Walz could be branded as a quintessential American “everyman” – a former high school teacher, former high school football coach, military veteran, former member of Congress, and now Governor of Minnesota.

OUTCOME: Walz was quickly and negatively viewed by voters as not ready for prime time due to frequent verbal gaffes and his answers (misleading at best) to questions about his background, especially his military service record.

CW: The November election popular vote outcome was expected to be a tossup that could result in a narrow popular vote win for either candidate.

OUTCOME: Trump won with 50.38 percent of the popular vote compared to 47.96 percent of the popular vote for Harris.

CW: The November election Electoral College vote outcome was expected to be a tossup that could result in a narrow Electoral College win for either candidate.

OUTCOME: With 270 Electoral College votes needed to win, Trump received 312 Electoral College votes compared to Harris’s 226 Electoral College votes. Trump was the first Republican President elected since 2004 to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote.

Going forward, the 2024 presidential election confirmed two absolute truths about conventional wisdom for political candidates, campaigns, pundits, voters, and others.

Never assume anything will happen at any until the polls close on election day.

Anything may happen at any time until the polls close on election day.

David Reel is a public affairs/public relations consultant who serves as a trusted advisor on strategy, advocacy, and media matters. Born and raised in Harrisburg, he was formerly active in the government and political arenas in Harrisburg and Philadelphia. He now lives and works from Easton on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.