Andy Bloom: Who wants to win this race?
With about three weeks until Election Day, sometimes it’s debatable how badly either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wants to win this campaign.
If either candidate is “all in,” it doesn’t show.
A few days ago, I planned on writing how both candidates were exclusively talking to their bases, and neither was trying to influence the sliver of undecided or persuadable voters.
That remains primarily true. Both candidates have avoided unfriendly media outlets. But both have done a couple of things to slightly change that narrative.
Trump has held a lengthy press conference, and Harris sat with Bill Whitaker for a 60 Minutes interview that didn’t go particularly well, even with complimentary editing, and Whitaker doing a voiceover response to some questions.
Beyond 60 Minutes, Harris has stuck with softball and fluff interviews, which Bill Mahr referred to as places where she “got her ass pre-kissed.” Stops on her “media blitz” included Stephen Colbert and Howard Stern – where we learned about her favorite cereals. Harris did The View, where she was asked the softball question: What she would have done differently than Biden over the past four years. Her answer was shocking, “There is not a thing that comes to mind.”
Thirteen American soldiers were killed during the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. Not a thing comes to mind.
The worst inflation in over 40 years. Not a thing comes to mind.
The most illegal border crossings in modern history. Not a thing comes to mind.
One of Harris’s best lines had been that she wasn’t Donald Trump or Joe Biden. She may not be Joe Biden, but her administration wouldn’t be much different. So much for turning the page and moving forward. She’s not the change candidate. Put that at the top of the list for reasons she’s doing poorer than Hillary or Biden at this point in the campaign.
Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, was simultaneously doing his media blitz and inserting his foot in his mouth. He told Jimmy Kimmel that he planned on “waking up with Madam President the morning after the election.” Kimmel nervously pointed out that they wouldn’t be sleeping together that night.
Then Walz called for the end of the Electoral College. The Harris campaign quickly issued a statement saying it was not their official position.
Another Harris-Walz “media blitz” before election day seems improbable.
Trump declined the 60 Minutes interview. It’s unclear whether it was a missed opportunity or if answering the same questions about whether he lost the 2020 election and January 6 would have done more damage than good.
Trump has stuck to appearances on Fox News and interviews with friendly podcasters.
Both Harris and Trump agreed to town halls on Univision. Harris did hers. Trump’s was scheduled for October 8, but Univision postponed it due to Hurricane Milton. It has been rescheduled for October 16.
Trump has held rallies in Aurora, Colorado, and Coachella, California, with a planned rally in New York’s Madison Square Garden. The election comes down to six or seven battleground states. In 2016, Hillary didn’t spend enough time in Wisconsin and lost. Trump shouldn’t spend time in deep blue states. Trump must remain focused on the battleground states during the campaign’s final weeks, especially because of his serious cash disadvantage.
Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, sat for an interview with Lulu Garcia-Navarro of the New York Times. She repeatedly pushed him about the results of the 2020 election. Vance refused to answer the question directly.
Vance is typically good at answering tough questions, but he hasn’t figured out how to answer this one. It should be easy enough to acknowledge that, “On Inauguration Day 2020, Joe Biden was sworn in as president, and I accept that he is the President of the United States. Still, we believe there were many irregularities in the election.” After that, say, “I’ve answered the question, move on.” This is not what I believe, but it is the answer I would craft for Vance if I were doing his communications.
With a few exceptions, both campaigns are focusing on talking to their bases and maximizing turnout. If Trump stuck to the reality of the past four years and compared it to the reality of the pre-Covid years of his administration, without the personal attacks or unnecessary exaggerations, he would appeal to more voters who don’t want a continuation of the last four years, and also think Harris isn’t up to the job.
Because of the media’s often fake narrative, lawfare, and yes because Trump is who he is, and says the things he says, many people will never vote for him, and others don’t want to vote for him. If Harris were capable of doing interviews and answering questions directly, without the word salad or other nonsensical responses, she would do better. Voters aren’t stupid, and they know when somebody is hiding. Harris can’t explain why she has done a 180-degree flip on every position she held when she ran for president in 2020. She’s running the most vapid campaign in modern history.
We have more polling than ever and it’s closer than any presidential election ever. The polls are much closer than in 2020 when mid-October polling averages showed Joe Biden leading nationally by eight to 10 points. Biden won by 4.4 percent (Yes, Trump did lose, and Biden won), or at the same point in 2016, when Hillary was leading by six or seven points. While Hillary won the popular vote by just over two percentage points, Trump won the Electoral College and the presidency.
As of October 13, the RealClear Politics average shows Harris with less than a two-point lead over Trump nationally but Trump with less than a one-point lead in the top battleground states. High-quality polls contradict one another.
In Pennsylvania, either Harris is up three (NYT/Siena) or Trump is up one (TIPP, The Hill/Emerson, Wall Street Journal).
In Arizona, maybe Trump is up five (NYT/Siena), or Harris is up two (WSJ).
Quinnipiac has Trump up two in Wisconsin, while The New York Times/Siena poll has Harris up two.
Quinnipiac also has Trump up four in Michigan, while The WSJ has Harris up two.
No poll shows one candidate with a definite advantage. The polls all have one thing in common: all results are within the margin of error.
Both candidates seem ready to double down on their strategies. Harris has one undeniable advantage: a huge cash advantage. While she claims she’s running a positive, forward-looking campaign. She’s flooding the airwaves with negative ads about Trump. The carpet bombing on every form of media will intensify in the final weeks. That could be the deciding factor.
Short of an October surprise, the unknown that may ultimately tell the story is whether pollsters have solved the challenge of undercounting Trump voters or like in 2016 and 2020, Trump outperforms his poll numbers. If pollsters underestimate Trump’s numbers by even a few tenths of a point, he will become the 47th President of the United States. If the pollsters mostly get it right, Election Night will be extremely late – and we may not have an answer for days afterward.
Andy Bloom is President of Andy Bloom Communications. He specializes in media training and political communications. He has programmed legendary stations including WIP, WPHT, WYSP/Philadelphia, KLSX, Los Angeles, and WCCO Minneapolis. He was Vice President of Programming for Emmis International, Greater Media Inc., and Coleman Research. Andy also served as communications director for Rep. Michael R. Turner (R-Ohio). He can be reached by email at andy@andybloom.com or you can follow him on Twitter at @AndyBloomCom.
QUESTION: Who wants to win this race?
ANSWER: The oligarchs and Fortune 1000 crowd… and they already won it. The “race” was back in the primaries. Trump will print money the same way the Dems will print money. DeSantis, a proven and effective administrator, would have been able to upend the swamp. Trump did not, and will not, drain the swamp. The “reporters” that were surprised Biden dropped out of the race, that went along with the Covid witch trial mentality, and always amp the rhetoric and hyperbole on both far-ends of the culture war for ratings… they “won”, too.
QUESTION: Your write “This is not what I believe, but it is the answer I would craft for Vance…” so exactly what do you believe regarding that specific topic?