From the Editors: Are Democrats entering their Tea Party era?

Chris Rabb’s win this week in Pennsylvania’s 3rd congressional district primary comes as a surprise to observers of Philly politics who are used to seeing establishment candidates — machine candidates — win over outsiders and insurgents. 

Rabb is not a complete outsider — he’s held elective office as a member of the state house for years now — but he was not the choice of the Democratic City Committee, which endorsed state Sen. Sharif Street, nor was he the choice of outgoing Congressman Dwight Evans, who endorsed Dr. Ala Stanford. But he was the choice of the voters (and most especially the progressive voters) of the district, who he will now represent in Congress, probably for many years to come.

That’s a divergence we’re not used to seeing. Having the ward leaders and the unions behind you, absent unusual personal issues, was once enough to secure the Democratic nomination in Philadelphia, especially in a non-presidential year when the turnout was low (it was 21 percent citywide, though higher in the 3rd district). The machine was unaffected by enthusiasm gaps. The wheels kept turning, the establishment kept winning.

What’s changed? Part of it is that the machine doesn’t really do anything for people anymore, it just asks for their votes. Philadelphia is governed somewhat better than it was in 2020, but it’s still not a place where people feel they’re getting their money’s worth from the taxes and fees they pay. So why would any voter care what a committeeman he sees twice a year thinks?

Moreover, the gentrified areas of the city, many of which are in the 3rd district, are full of newcomers to the city, who were not brought up to the idea that the machine deserves any kind of deference. Coming in from the relatively unbossed suburbs and rural areas of the country, they likely don’t see the point of the sample ballot of the city committee endorsement. They may be right.

But all of this — along with the general decline in party power across the nation — has been true for years. It was true in 2023, when Democratic primary voters chose a sensible moderate in Cherelle Parker over more radical opponents. What’s changed?

Part of this we can chalk up to the particulars of the race: Street and Stanford were competing for similar voters, but Rabb had no far-left opponent to cannibalize his constituency. That’s the difference between a 40 percent win and a 40 percent loss.

But more than that, there is the rising anger within the Democratic coalition that their establishment candidates aren’t doing enough. What should they be doing? Answers vary, but it’s always more. More to defund ICE. More to undermine Israel. More to stop Trump, as a general matter.

It calls to mind the Republican fever of the Tea Party years, when electable opponents were cast aside in favor of untested outsiders who scratched an anti-establishment itch. Instead of sending Mike Castle to the Senate in 2010, Delaware Republicans nominated Christine O’Donnell – and lost badly. Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock, and other names Republicans would love to forget — these nominees made the hardcore base of the party happy, and lost the seat to the Democrats.

Chris Rabb is in no danger of losing the seat to Republicans. PA-3 is one of the most Democratic districts in the country — a perfect place for a fit of progressive pique. But should Democratic primary voters press their luck in similar fashion in Michigan (as they seem set to do in Maine), then even the favorable tides of a midterm election will not save them.