WASHINGTON, Pa. — In this year’s presidential election, Pennsylvania was the biggest electoral prize. And just as former President Donald Trump improved his performance statewide compared to 2020, he also improved his performance in Southwest Pennsylvania, a region that has been getting redder for two decades but where Democrats had seemed to make at least marginal improvements in 2020, when Joe Biden ran for president, and 2022, when Josh Shapiro sought the governorship.

Inflation was a big reason for Trump’s strong showing, as it was in many places, said Chris Petrone, a Democratic consultant with Pittsburgh-based Allegheny Strategy Partners. “People were looking to blame someone, so they blamed Biden,” he said.

Mike Butler, another Democratic consultant, said he didn’t see the same degree of excitement for Biden’s successor as the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. “There was subdued enthusiasm” for Harris in the region, Butler said.

Through aggressive advertising, Trump and his allies were able to focus voter attention on border security, making it a top-of-mind issue, Butler and Petrone said. Another issue that blanketed the airwaves was criticism of transgender women athletes being able to play women’s sports. 

On neither issue were Harris and the Democrats able to offer voters a clear, forceful response, Butler and Petrone said. “There was uncertainty about her policy positions,” Petrone said.

This marks the eighth consecutive election cycle I’ve written an election post-mortem for PoliticsPA based on my reporting in six Southwest Pennsylvania counties: Allegheny, Beaver, Fayette, Greene, Washington and Westmoreland.

Over the full arc of these seven election cycles, the region’s voting patterns have moved away from the Democrats, with the exception of Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County, which has, if anything, become even bluer. Such developments have tracked the parallel paths of the two parties – the Democratic Party has become predominantly urban and suburban with a strong appeal to college-educated voters, while the Republican Party has become increasingly rural and attractive to blue-collar voters, who predominate in all but Allegheny County.

In 2024, Harris notched a new low for a Democratic presidential nominee’s share of the vote in Greene County (Waynesburg) and Fayette County (Uniontown); in both, she fared even worse than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. In Washington County (Washington) and Beaver County (Aliquippa), Harris did manage to exceed Clinton’s 2016 performance, albeit narrowly, but in each county, she underperformed Biden’s showing by more than a percentage point.

In just two of the six counties did Harris win a greater share of the vote than Biden did, in both cases only narrowly. 

In Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), Harris took 59.66 percent, slightly higher than the 59.43 percent Biden won in 2020. Somewhat more surprisingly, Harris improved in Westmoreland County (Greensburg), the only one of the six counties that was already a Republican stronghold a quarter century ago. In Westmoreland, Harris won 35.42 percent, a hair better than Biden’s 35.16 percent four years earlier.

“People wanted change, and the question was which candidate could best deliver that change,” said Jon Delano, the money and politics editor at KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh. “Trump did a better job of promising the biggest change.”

Delano said he was surprised that suburban areas didn’t move more strongly toward Harris. 

“I don’t think the abortion issue was as salient in Pennsylvania because we have a Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, who would veto any abortion restrictions,” Delano said. 

One of the more striking results in Southwest Pennsylvania this year was the implosion of support for three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey. Statewide, Casey’s race hasn’t been formally called yet, but his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick, looks likely to be declared the winner. (Editor’s note: Casey has since conceded)

In his first run for Senate in 2006, Casey, the namesake son of a popular, moderate governor, won all six counties in Southwest Pennsylvania. In 2012, he won Allegheny, Beaver and Fayette and did no worse than 41% in any of the six counties. In 2018, Casey won Allegheny and Beaver and did no worse than 43% in any county.

But if Casey’s familiarity had helped him post relatively strong showings in a reddening region during his first three races, the bottom dropped out for him in 2024. 

In Beaver, he lost for the first time in 2024, shedding 10 percentage points from his 2018 showing. He dropped 15 points in Fayette, 17 points in Greene, 9 points in Washington, and 7 points in Westmoreland. Even in Allegheny, the only county of the six that Casey managed to win in 2024, he fell off his 2018 pace by 6 percentage points.

“This was his toughest election, because he had a highly funded candidate who outspent him, and some would say out-hustled him,” Delano said. “The basic question you ask of any long-term elected official is what have they done in office. While Casey has a reputation within the party for having delivered a lot, there was not a strong public perception of him on any key issue. People left wondering what he has done for eighteen years in the Senate.”

Compared to 2022 Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz, who lost to Democrat John Fetterman, McCormick was trickier to caricature as a carpetbagger, Butler said.

McCormick also benefited in a big way from running in a presidential year.

One of the constants I’ve tracked in Southwest Pennsylvania during the Trump era is that Republicans show up for Trump in presidential years, but not necessarily in midterm elections, when his name is not on the ballot.

In each of the six counties, the number of Republican votes for the top race — presidential in presidential years, Senate in midterm years — has fallen significantly from presidential to midterm elections. 

Between 2016 and 2018, the midterm drop-off ranged from 32 percent to 41 percent, and between 2020 and 2022, it ranged from 25 percent to 34 percent.

By contrast, Democrats in the region saw their top-of-the-ticket votes barely fall at all between presidential and midterm elections. 

This data indicates that many voters in the region are strong Trump supporters and will pull the lever down-ballot for other Republicans when they vote for him in a presidential year — but a notable sliver of these voters won’t come out to vote at all in a midterm election, robbing down-ballot Republicans of support. 

Running in a presidential year, in other words, proved to be a big plus for McCormick, at least in Southwest Pennsylvania.

Casey’s electoral career may now be finished, but other Democrats remain major players in the state, and they may fare better going forward than Harris did.

In 2022, Shapiro overperformed Harris’ eventual 2024 showing in each of the 6 counties by between 9 and 12 percentage points. And Fetterman overperformed Harris’ 2024 showing by between 3 and 7 percentage points. 

Shapiro is “an extremely strong, compelling candidate” who “knows how to talk about his wins,” Petrone said. Fetterman, for his part, has an everyman style that “appeals to common-sense sensibilities,” Butler said. “He doesn’t look or sound like other Democrats,” which is a plus in the region.

Another bright spot for Democrats, if somewhat overlooked amid the focus on the presidential and Senate races, is the reelection victory of Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio in the highly competitive 17th congressional district, which includes the northern suburbs of Allegheny County and all of Beaver County,

Deluzio was elected in 2022 and faced a credible challenger this year, Republican state Rep. Rob Mercuri. Yet Deluzio held on, unlike the other two House Democrats PoliticsPA rated as “vulnerable” this year, Reps. Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild, both of whom lost to challengers in districts in the eastern part of the state.

This year, Deluzio prevailed, 54 percent to 46 percent, a margin that was two points wider than his initial victory two years ago and two points wider than Biden’s win in his district in 2020.

Observers here agreed that Deluzio offered an effective message of fighting corporate power. Casey had tried a similar argument in the Senate race by focusing on corporate “greedflation,” but observers here say Casey’s presentation was less effective. 

Deluzio’s approach fit with longstanding rhetoric in the region, Petrone said. “Growing up, I went to union rallies, and the whole pushback was against corporate America,” he said.

Constituents also appreciated Deluzio’s efforts on railroad safety after a Feb. 3, 2023, toxic chemical spill just across the border in East Palestine, Ohio. “That was something he could point to,” Delano said.

Democrats have a few other bright spots in the region. In Cambria County (Johnstown), which borders Westmoreland County, state Rep. Frank Burns won reelection in an overwhelmingly pro-Trump district. And in Beaver County, Democratic state Rep. Rob Matzie won a new term. Both victories have proven essential to enabling Democrats to maintain a narrow majority in the state House.

Still, both Burns and Matzie are long-serving incumbents whose seats have a good shot at going Republican whenever they decide to retire.

Indeed, while Democrats in Southwest Pennsylvania hope to stanch the red tide in the region, the long-term shift is clear.

“I think the shift will be to keep moving right,” Butler said. 

This article was originally published in PoliticsPA.