New poll shows that Pennsylvania is still a toss up

Gage Skidmore Gage Skidmore

A new poll released yesterday by the Commonwealth Foundation shows that in Pennsylvania the races for president, U.S. Senate, and state executive offices are very close with Democratic candidates holding a narrow lead; however, many independents are still undecided. Conversely, voters, by a small margin, believe Republican policies are better for the economy. The poll is based on the responses of 800 registered voters in the Commonwealth who were surveyed by the Bullfinch Group between September 26 and 29, 2024, with a margin of error of 3.46.

Despite the close races, Pennsylvania voters are generally pessimistic about the direction of the state and the country: 68 percent of respondents said the country is on the wrong track, and 57 percent said Pennsylvania is on the wrong track.

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump (50 to 46 percent) in a two-way race with 61 percent of independent voters dissatisfied with their choices for a presidential candidate; however, overall voter satisfaction with presidential candidates increased 18 points to 58 percent since June when President Biden was still a candidate.

In the U.S. Senate race, Bob Casey leads Dave McCormick (48 to 39 percent), but McCormick continues to gain support, increasing his vote share by three points over the past quarter while Casey’s support has remained flat since early 2024. While 13 percent say they would vote for a different candidate or neither candidate, 28 percent of independents are still undecided between the two candidates.

The overall top concern for voters is inflation and the cost of living. The U.S. economy in general and immigration/border security are also major concerns. The Commonwealth Foundation summarized the survey findings in a press release.

“Nearly seven-in-ten registered voters say inflation and price increases impact their family’s ability to maintain their standard of living (34 percent responding ‘a great deal’ and 35 percent ‘a fair amount’). Over half of all registered voters surveyed say their economic conditions are worsening.”

Almost 60 percent rate the economic conditions in Pennsylvania as negative, and 41 percent think it is a bad time to find a quality job in the Commonwealth. Approximately half of voters under the age of 44 have thought about leaving the state, know someone who has thought about leaving, or know someone who did leave due to Pennsylvania’s policies. The top reasons listed for thinking about leaving are lower cost of living, lower taxes, and better jobs and opportunities.

Energy is another key factor in voter’s consideration of candidates. Almost 80 percent are somewhat or very concerned about the future availability of affordable energy in the U.S., while 77 percent report that their energy costs have increased over the past two years. Almost 80 percent say that energy affordability is an important decision point about choosing a candidate,  and 86 percent believe it is important for the U.S. to be energy independent and not rely upon foreign countries.

By a small majority, respondents believe Harris (48 percent) will do a better job than Trump (46 percent) supporting energy policies that benefit Pennsylvania. Yet when asked about natural gas and fracking, voters think that Trump by a slightly wider margin (48 percent) will do a better job than Harris (43 percent).

A majority of voters (70 percent) think that Governor Shapiro should support bipartisan legislation to require voter identification.

Support for educational options is high with 60 percent supporting the Child Learning Investment Tax Credit of up to $8,000 to reduce tax liability to pay for educational expenses, including private school tuition. Close to 60 percent of voters grade the quality of Pennsylvania’s K-12 school system as either an F, D, or C; while 76 percent support creating an A through F grading system that would give every one of Pennsylvania’s K-12 schools a grade based on factors including state achievement, learning gains in assessment, scores and graduation rates.

Erik Telford, Senior Vice President at the Commonwealth Foundation believes the races will come down to the wire and will be greatly impacted by voter turnout.

“A key factor will be how well candidates define themselves around financial and economic insecurity issues driving voter behavior. Candidates and elected officials must remain aware of the economic and financial pressures on individuals and families. Policies that make things worse or threaten their financial futures will get little support. Policies that grow our economy and promote financial security, such as promoting energy development, are clear winners.”

Beth Ann Rosica resides in West Chester, has a Ph.D. in Education, and has dedicated her career to advocating on behalf of at-risk children and families. She covers education issues for Broad + Liberty. Contact her at barosica@broadandliberty.com.

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One thought on “New poll shows that Pennsylvania is still a toss up”

  1. Unlike normal ballots, which precinct workers personally hand to and collect from actual voters, mail-in ballots do not have a trackable chain of custody. County clerks or independent printers supply truckloads of ballots and U.S. Postal letter carriers deliver them as addressed.
    QUESTION: Most of these ballots find actual voters… but roughly how many others reach questionable or even unqualified locations (directed to voters who have moved away, passed on, or never even existed)?
    ANSWER: Roughly 2,848,288—in just six states: PA, GA, MI, NV, NC, and WI. That according to Austin, Texas-based ballot security expert Jay Valentine who launched Common Sense Elections to expose “addresses such as a Walmart, bank, 7-Eleven, or a college dorm room where the student graduated 12 years ago—all yielding ballots that NGOs gather. They estimate:
    —Across these states, 660,290 mail-in ballots are tied to registered voters who permanently moved to other states. These absentees number 68,983 in Georgia (far exceeding Joe Biden’s 2020 margin of victory: 11,779 votes); 262,488 in Pennsylvania (which Biden won by 80,555); and 42,043 in Wisconsin (Biden’s by 20,682).
    —Voters who moved to other in-state counties total 457,310. These include 65,857 relocated voters in Michigan (which Trump won in 2016 by 10,704 votes) and 169,083 in Pennsylvania (which Trump secured in 2016 with 44,292 votes).
    —Voters who moved and left no forwarding residence total 146,160.
    —Those linked to invalid addresses total 663,514. Pennsylvania is home to 346,505 such “voters.”
    —Voters recorded as residing at commercial sites: 4,914. These reflect, among others, “voters” at Las Vegas’ Harry Reid International Airport and a vacant lot at 9145 Mann St., Las Vegas, NV 89113.
    —A staggering 916,100 voters are enrolled with missing or incorrect apartment numbers. This boosts the odds that postal workers will leave unclaimed ballots in lobbies or mailrooms, where harvesters can retrieve and abuse them.
    Left-wing nongovernmental organizations, or NGOs, harvest, complete, and submit these ballots at election offices. They also deposit them in unsupervised drop boxes.

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