NYT/Inquirer/Siena poll shows chinks in Biden’s armor

Another day, another poll. But another survey that provides reasons for worry for President Joe Biden’s campaign.

The latest survey from the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College showed the race for the White House still within the +/- 3.6 percent margin of error, as former president Donald Trump holds a 47-44 advantage over Biden. That number does move past the MOE when respondents were asked about multiple candidates with Trump over Biden at 40-36 percent with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulling in 10 percent.

Crosstabs continue to highlight the incumbent’s weaknesses amongst various groups, including men – particularly those without a college degree – as well as non-white and non-black voters. Trump holds an overall 53-39 percent advantage with males that increases to 63-30 percent among those without a degree. While Biden maintains a 49-43 percent margin with women, his numbers with other ethnicities are only +5 (41-36 percent).

Biden’s weaknesses show in the numbers asking who would respondents trust to do a better job on various topics.

Trump leads 54-42 percent on the economy, 47-42 percent on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and 51-42 percent on crime. Biden is trusted considerably more on abortion, 55-35 percent with two-thirds placing responsibility for the Supreme Court ending the constitutional right to an abortion at Trump’s feet.

According to the survey, the battleground in the Keystone State could come down to the Lehigh Valley. Biden holds commanding advantages in Allegheny and Philadelphia counties, as well as a double-digit lead in the Philly suburbs. Trump has sizable leads in the west and central portions of the state and a fourteen-point bulge in south-central PA. However, the Lehigh Valley and Northeast sees just a one-point difference between the candidates, leaning to Trump.

Thirty-eight percent of respondents indicated that they approve of Biden’s job performance, as opposed to 60 percent that disapprove. Forty-four percent of women approve, as do 55 percent of Blacks. More than 2-in 5 (41 percent) view Biden favorably and that numbers increases when focusing on women (48 percent), seniors (45 percent) and those with a college degree (49 percent). Sixty-one percent of responses from 18-29 year-olds have an unfavorable view of the president, as do those without a degree.

Trump is viewed favorably by 43 percent of those surveyed, while 55 percent disagree with that position. The 45th president’s strength rests with men (53 percent), white men (46 percent) and those without a four-year degree (51 percent). Eighty percent of Blacks, 63 percent of women and 61 percent of those between the ages of 30-44 do not view him favorably.

Nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of those surveyed indicated they are paying some or a lot of attention to the legal cases involving Trump. Just 34 percent said it was likely that he would be convicted on the New York election interference case involving adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

Senate

Three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. continues to outpace Republican challenger Dave McCormick, 46-41 percent. Casey leads among all age groups and holds a sizable advantage among Black voters (72-12 percent). McCormick, the former Bridgewater Associates hedge fund CEO, does best among men (48-38 percent), especially those without a four-year degree (53-34 percent). But in the vote-rich areas of the Commonwealth, Casey is showing strength with 38-to-48-point advantages in Allegheny and Philadelphia and a thirteen-point margin in the suburbs of Philadelphia.

Casey’s favorability numbers are a net +18 with 49 percent view him favorably with just 31 percent having an unfavorable view of the Scranton native. McCormick is also at +18 (42-24 percent) with 34 percent indicating that did not know (17 percent), refused, or had not heard of (17 percent). Eight percent said they had not heard of Casey, while 12 percent said they did not know.

Governor

Pennsylvanians still give Gov. Josh Shapiro high marks. The first-term governor saw 57 percent of those surveyed approve of that way he is handling his job, while only one-in-four disapproved. The numbers are similar across gender, age, ethnicity and educational lines.

Miscellaneous

Sen. John Fetterman has a plus-7 net favorability number (48-41 percent).

The economy is the most important issue in deciding votes this November, according to this survey, at 22 percent. Abortion and immigration are next at 13 percent and 12 percent, respectively, followed by inflation and the cost of living (7 percent).

More than half of respondents rated the current economic conditions as poor (52 percent), with an additional 26 percent saying it is “only fair.”

Sixty-three percent of respondents believe that abortion should be legal, including 72 percent of women and 78 percent of those between 18-29. Just about half of seniors (53 percent) agree with the above statement.

Forty-four percent of survey participants sympathize with Israel more than Palestinians (22 percent) in their conflict.

Here are the key things to know about this set of polls from The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College:

• We spoke with 4,097 registered voters from April 28 to May 9, 2024.

• Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Nearly 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this set of polls, we placed nearly 500,000 calls to about 410,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• When the states are joined together, the margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. Each state poll has a margin of error ranging from plus or minus 3.6 points in Pennsylvania to plus or minus 4.6 points in Georgia. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

Steve Ulrich is the managing editor of PoliticsPA.

This article was originally published in PoliticsPA.