The direction of the past several elections should concern Republicans. Instead, too many ignore what voters are telling them and convince themselves that Democrats have figured out how to conduct massive fraud, except in Florida and perhaps New York. 

Ironically, Florida is where many Democrats believe Republicans stole the 2000 presidential election. New York, one of the most liberal states in the union, prevented Democrats from holding on to their House majority in the 2022 midterms, an election that by every metric should have been a GOP romp.

Democrats ran on two issues in 2022: The primary issue was abortion. Rarely has one event motivated voters like the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade energized votes for Democrats. Trump’s refusal to concede the 2020 election and efforts to overturn the results galvanized other independent voters who feared candidates labeled “election deniers” imperiled democracy.

Election results in early 2023 suggest that these issues remain salient with voters. 

Getting indicted may help Donald Trump win the Republican nomination. It’s drowned out all other information and focused every spotlight on him. He’s making the 2024 election about him and his grievances. 

The Republican Party would be wisest to nominate somebody else with Trump’s 2016 themes but without Trump’s 2023 baggage. I know too many Trumpers who aren’t ready to let go yet. However, they must face reality and stop telling one another that massive cheating is why they lost and continue to lose. 

It’s this simple: Biden won, Trump lost, and not because of cheating. Eight well-known Trump-supporting Republicans wrote a report called “Lost, Not Stolen.”

It’s a must-read for anybody who still believes Donald Trump won the election. The group reviews all 64 legal challenges by Trump’s legal team. 

Out of 64 lawsuits, Trump’s lawyers withdrew from fourteen cases. Federal judges dismissed 47 more, including eight judges appointed by Trump.

Trump’s lawyers won a total of three motions, all in Pennsylvania, which threw out 270 provisional ballots lacking signatures, separated Election Day provisional ballots, and moved back the state’s deadline for absentee voters to present voter ID by three days, but hardly changed the outcome.

The Supreme Court declined to hear Trump’s cases twice. 

Georgia conducted two statewide recounts that narrowed Biden’s lead from 14,196 to 12,284 and finally to 11,779 – something Trump-haters must bear in mind in the legal matter regarding the phone call they want him imprisoned over.

In Wisconsin, two partial recounts of the state’s results added 74 votes to Biden’s lead.

Trump’s team didn’t prove fraud in any of the 64 cases, with 87 different judges and two attempts to go to the Supreme Court. Documents emerging because of the Dominion Voting Systems lawsuit demonstrate that even the Fox News Channel anchors knew they were putting guests on the air who were insane or whose conspiracy theories were lies. Despite all this, many still believe it when Trump continues to say Democrats stole the 2020 election. 

Cheating on a mass scale didn’t happen, but the rules did change. Trump may have sealed his fate when he told his voters not to vote by mail. By Election Day, Democrats had legally run up the count by enough that perhaps Trump never had a chance to win. 

In sports, rules change from season to season. The teams that win adapt to the new regulations first. Losers hold on to old traditions. Democrats adjusted to mail-in voting better than Republicans, just as they did to the internet in its infancy. 

The 2022 midterms are replaying in 2023.

In Chicago, incumbent mayor Lori Lightfoot didn’t survive the election’s first round, but the end result is arguably worse. After a five-week battle between former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, a paid organizer for the Chicago Teachers Union, Johnson won. 

CNN Political Commentator, former Obama chief campaign strategist, and senior presidential advisor David Axelrod called it “candidate of the Chicago Teachers Union” vs. the “Fraternal Order of Police,” and the teachers union won. 

Vallas ran a campaign around Chicago’s “utter breakdown of law and order” and promised to fill the 1,700 police vacancies. 

Johnson ran on a pledge of $800 million in new and increased taxes and $1 billion in new spending. His position on the police changed over time, but initially, he said he would cut $150 million from the department’s nearly $2 billion budget. He wouldn’t commit to filling the open positions either. 

Why does a city as crime-ridden as Chicago boots Lori Lightfoot only to replace her with an even more liberal and anti-cop mayor?

On the same day, Wisconsin voters sent another pro-choice message to Republicans by giving control of the State’s Supreme Court to the liberal faction for the first time in fifteen years. 

The election was between Janet Protasiewicz, a Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge, and Dan Kelly, a former Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice. Then-Governor Scott Walker appointed Kelly to the state Supreme Court in 2016. However, in 2020 he lost to a liberal opponent in his first attempt to win a full 10-year term.

TV ads hammered Kelly for his paid work advising Republicans on legal efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and the alternate elector plan.

The primary issue, however, was abortion. Wisconsin has a restrictive abortion law dating to 1849. It bans abortion in nearly all circumstances and could come before the state Supreme Court anytime.

Protasiewicz said she supported abortion rights. Prominent Democrats, including Hillary Clinton, and abortion rights groups like Emily’s List endorsed her. 

Kelly previously worked for Wisconsin Right to Life, and pro-life groups supported him.

While neither candidate would specifically say how they would rule on a hypothetical abortion case, each stated how the other would rule. Voters understood their options and the likely impact.

The race became the most expensive state Supreme Court contest in U.S. history. According to, the independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit research group that tracks money in U.S. politics, spending on the election surpassed $45 million, three times the prior record for a state Supreme Court race ($15 million). 

The youth vote has been discounted for ages because it failed to materialize on Election Day. Whether it’s because of mail-in voting or their passion for issues, Millennials (born 1981 – 1996) and Gen Z (1997 forward – and now up to 25 years old) are voting in record numbers.

For example, in the Wisconsin state Supreme Court election, there were approximately 7,000 more total votes in Dane County (Madison and the University of Wisconsin – Population 568,203) than in Milwaukee County (the City of Milwaukee and its suburbs – Population 918,661). 

Abortion is one of the issues driving the youth voting trend.

A 2022 Pew Research Center poll shows that 61 percent of all Americans believe that abortion should be legal in “all or most cases.” The figure rises to 74 percent among 18- to 29-year-olds. It drops to 55 percent of 50- to 64-year-olds and 54 percent among those over 65.

The Gallup Poll shows similar trends, as does virtually every other public opinion poll. 

These trends will only get worse for Republicans. 

With new perspectives gained from the Covid vaccine controversies, conservatives should better understand “my body, my choice.” Fighting to ban abortion will cause the GOP to lose elections and the ability to impact other issues. 

Throughout history, bans have never stopped people from doing what they are determined to do. I don’t believe Republicans can successfully ban abortions anymore, probably than I think Democrats can ban semi-automatic weapons.

I understand many people believe abortion is murder. It’s a deeply personal view, sometimes rooted in religion. It’s also becoming a minority issue. Republicans should not be the minority party. 

The trends are clear. For Trump voters who believe Democrats stole the 2020 elections, more disappointment lies ahead. They need to wake up and move forward instead of trying to settle perceived past grievances – that’s a sure way to continue losing. There is no future in pursuing losses based on cheating. You might as well give up. 

Continuing to try and ban abortions almost entirely ensures a future as a minority party. The demographics make that unavoidable. The Party has adjusted to the racial make-up of the country. Even as Democrats call conservatives racists, the Republican Party continues to attract more minorities. Playing the race card is wearing thinner and thinner with each fraudulent usage. 

Finally, the game has changed, so Republicans must change how they play. Mail voting is here to stay. Republicans must get better at it than Democrats.

Paraphrasing Charles Darwin, “It’s not the strongest species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the most adaptable to change.” Will we permit Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi to be the adaptable ones and allow conservatism to become obsolete and irrelevant, or will we embrace change and learn to adapt?

Andy Bloom is president of Andy Bloom Communications. He specializes in media training and political communications. He has programmed legendary stations including WIP, WPHT and WYSP/Philadelphia, KLSX, Los Angeles and WCCO Minneapolis. He was Vice President Programming for Emmis International, Greater Media Inc. and Coleman Research. Andy also served as communications director for Rep. Michael R. Turner (R-Ohio). He can be reached by email at or you can follow him on Twitter @AndyBloomCom.

8 thoughts on “Andy Bloom: Election trends portend ominous forecast for Republicans”

  1. Always be suspicious of a supposed “R” who quotes Pew to support his argument. Rs do need to change, but it needs to be away from the Chamber of Commerce/big business as usual types and towards practical populism. Also, about 80% support limits on abortion and not the D position of all abortions, any time, for any reason.

    1. I am one of those Rs you would be referring to, but I would expect people to view all polls through a critical and skeptical lense.

      I also appreciate your summary of not blindly supporting businesses. That is a principle to guide decisions, but we have seen how big businesses have abandoned the best interests of Americans and their workers and not all should be treated either the same respect and support of the ones who practice ethics of community and support for workers.

      Regarding abortion, yes. I don’t disagree, but we have lost that argument when the far right zealots like Mastriano say people should be put in jail. There doesn’t seem consensus on what abortion even is when speaking about it – medical procedures to remove a failed pregnancy or the 9 month late term abortion nightmare that rarely happens seem to get lumped together and cause a breakdown in dialog and effective policy discussion.

      All the more reason to throw out a bloviating wart like Trump who refuses to engage in constructive dialog for a leader who will lead.

      I think Trump has more to focus on in the coming years than Presidency. I would like a President that doesn’t have to spend time fending off criminal charges for one who can focus on crippling China, Russia, and Iran’s plans to subvert the dollar and the West.

      1. Mr. Trump, in my opinion, does not have the interests of the Nation as his motivation in running again for President. I believe that his personal motivation is nothing more than personal pride. While any candidate for public office arguably has a well-developed ego, Mr. Trump’s is far beyond that. He is fueling a cult of personality that is dangerous to the body politic. Many have compared him to the totalitarian leaders of Europe in the 30s and 40s. That I feel is not a correct comparison. Rather they should compare him to Juan Peron’s presidency in Argentina.
        It is now time for both parties to move on from the boomer generation. Age is a consideration. Personally, in 2024, I will find it hard to vote for any candidate for the House, Senate, or Presidency who was born before 1960.

  2. People consume news that confirms their beliefs. I speak the truth, no matter who I upset. I anger liberals most of the time, but Republicans lost the House in 2018. The White House and the Senate in 2020. The big Red Wave didn’t happen in 2022. The Wisconsin Supreme Court now has a liberal majority for the first time in 15 years and Chicago has a mayor that may be crazier than Lori Lightfoot. How much more pain do you have to endure before you figure out that you are wrong?

    Sorry, us “country club” Republicans and “Chamber of Commerce/big business as usual types” won a lot of elections. Was 2016 a trend or an anomaly?

    Pew is one of the most respected research and polling firms in the world, but if you don’t like their data, how about Gallup? A May 2022 Gallup Poll finds: 35% think abortion should be legal in all circumstances, 18% think it should be legal in most circumstances, 32% think it should be legal in only a few circumstances, and 13% think it should be illegal in all circumstances. The poll, conducted after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade was leaked but not official, also found that 58% were against overturning the decision, while 35% were in favor.

    I won’t bother to give you my Republican bona fides but follow me on social media, and you’ll see liberals think I’m a right-wing nut. Sorry, that you can’t handle the truth. So when Trump loses in 24 will you continue to tell yourself that it’s because of cheating, will you listen then, or will you keep repeating the same mistakes?

    1. I do agree with you Andy. I believe that if Mr. Trump is the Republican nominee for President in 2024 he will run a personality campaign, not a thoughtful one grounded in the real issues facing all of us. I voted for him twice, and I was thankful that he was directly responsible for derailing the coronation of Jeb Bush as the Republican nominee in 2016. However, Mr. Trump’s time is now past and it is time for the Republican party to start thinking of the long game.

  3. President Trump proved me wrong and was an excellent on foreign policy. Domestically, he was a disaster mostly because of his leadership style. He revealed the “deep state”, but he allowed the US get locked down and print way too much money. The minority of the people who still actually want him to be President are the people who resist change the most, and don’t need to go along with the crowd – in fact they’re contrarian. They think they are interested in winning, but it seems they are more interested in pushing back against being told what to do and think. The “Twitter files” show the Feds censored social media on a grand scale… and no one really cares or did anything about it. Republicans have too much corruption and RINO’s in leadership positions to win. Democrats give people endless benefits, so people vote for them, and the consequences haven’t caught up to us yet. Mail in voting is as simple as going to a college campus, so Republicans will never win again with mail-in voting in PA. Florida took all the people from other states who might have balanced the mail-in votes. And smart Democrats want Trump to be the Republican nominee for the same reason Shapiro supporters affected the result of the PA Republican primaries. Dems are way too ahead of the game. Not enough people are upset enough to shake up Republican leadership or create another Party. Historically we live in very peaceful and prosperous times.

  4. “Extremism and stubbornness” seems to win for Democrats. I think what Bloom wants is for Republicans to become Republicans in name only

  5. I pray that all hard-core Trump loyalists in the Keystone State keep Pennsylvania’s 2022 election results at ‘top of mind’ when they consider our 2023 and 2024 elections, which will be here before you know it. Bottom line: if we end up with any more “Trump-endorsed” state-wide candidates like Sen. Mastriano and Dr. Oz, the dems will rout us again and our state will be well on its way to becoming the California of the east coast.

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