At BLS, Trump shoots the messenger
Numbers don’t lie. That’s the adage that recognizes reports from reputable entities. But when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics came out with a negative job report last week President Trump responded by firing its commissioner. Our POTUS, it seems, does not take well to bad news.
In a shooting of the messenger action, BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer was jettisoned, after her disclosure that only 73,000 jobs were added during July. She has been in a non-partisan position in which she has served under presidents both Republican and Democratic. Her report is based on data gathered from a survey of 631,000 worksites each month. That is accomplished through media, web, phone and fax. It has always been considered to be unbiased. True, the response rate has declined in the last decade from 72 percent to 58 percent. But it still represents a reasonable work picture.
Unfortunately, this is not the first time that our President has steered away from reality. In February of 2021, he declared the Covid outbreak to be a “hoax.” Confirmed deaths from that “hoax” is listed at 1,225,528 according to the Centers for Disease Control. Perhaps he was trying to avert a jolt by Wall Street. Never the less, many were unprepared by the onslaught of that disease.
For all his many accomplishments in the eyes of MAGA supporters, he has had countless missteps. At the start of his first term in 2016, he vowed to build a wall along our southern border and that Mexico would pay for it. To date, only 80 miles of barrier were built, 47 of them showing a primary wall. So far, not a single peso was received for it.
In the days leading up to his second term in office, he declared he would end the war between Ukraine and Russia in “24 hours.” Six months later, the body counts stand at one million Russian casualties and over 400,000 for Ukraine. Its hardly over and shows little sign of letting up.
Also, despite the assertion by over 60 federal judges that the 2020 presidential election was conducted with no outcome-affecting irregularities, he refused to recognize the results. He did not hand off the baton to the incoming president with any grace and dignity as so many had done prior. On top of that, he may have been a catalyst for the storming of our nation’s capital when certification for the office was about to take place.
There are many accomplishments which supporters of the president can sight. But above all, our commander in chief must garner trust. He has diminished that feeling. He seems to avoid accountability, and that is discouraging.
The firing of BLS’s McEnter opened the door for an appointee by him, who presumably will mask bad news. This is unacceptable for thoughtful people of all political stripes. Here’s hoping he changes course and realizes that words and actions greatly matter.
Jeff Hurvitz (jrhurvitz@aol.com) is a freelance writer and native Philadelphian.
McEntarfer was a disaster and a leftist stooge and provided false cover to assist in choking Trumps’s economic policies and strategy. She has a lengthy history of inaccuracies and incompetence by Erika McEntarfer, the former Biden-appointed Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has completely eroded public trust in the government agency charged with disseminating key data used by policymakers and businesses to make consequential decisions.
Under McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consistently published overly optimistic jobs numbers — only for those numbers to be quietly revised later. From the Whitehouse:
BLS had to revise down May and June jobs reports by a combined 258,000 jobs. These previous faulty jobs reports enabled the Federal Reserve to continue its disastrous policy of keeping interest rates high.
On June 6, The New York Times reported: “A solid jobs report for May has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s stance that it can take its time before restarting interest rate cuts.
On July 3, The New York Times reported that the June jobs report “fortifies the Federal Reserve’s case that it does not need to be in a hurry to lower borrowing costs.”
Last year, BLS revised down the benchmark payroll growth for the year ending in March 2024 by 818,000 jobs — the second-largest benchmark revision on record.
The Daily Caller: “Including monthly revisions, the Biden administration overstated the number of jobs in the U.S. economy by 1.18 million in the year through March, accounting for approximately 36% of the 3.24 million jobs initially claimed, according to data from the BLS calculated by the Daily Caller News Foundation”
In July 2024, BLS revised jobs added in May of that year down by 54,000 jobs, and the jobs added in April down by 57,000 jobs.
In April 2024, BLS revised the jobs added in February of that year down — then further revised the number down the following month.
In February 2024, BLS revised the jobs added in December of the prior year down by 43,000 jobs and the jobs added in January of that year down by 124,000 jobs.
Bloomberg, 11/15/24: “Two key Senate Republicans excoriated the US government statistics agency responsible for monthly employment reports, saying recent large-scale revisions to initial figures show its ‘continued failures’ in producing crucial economic data … A preliminary annual revision to the jobs data, made in August, suggested job growth in the 12 months through March will be marked down by more than 800,000 — the largest downward revision since 2009 — making waves in financial markets and on Capitol Hill. The final data is due early next year.”
Bloomberg, 6/6/24: “Data published Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest payrolls might have grown about 60,000 less per month on average last year than the roughly 250,000 run-rate derived from the agency’s monthly employment report.”
The Heritage Foundation, 5/3/2024: “The BLS provides monthly estimates for the number of nonfarm payrolls across the country through a survey of over 600,000 businesses. According to that data, payrolls increased by 640,000 in the third quarter of last year … But now, the BLS has published its Business Employment Dynamics, or BED, report from that same period, and it shows a drop in private payrolls of 192,000. That’s a mammoth difference of 832,000 for the months of July, August and September.”
During McEntarfer’s tenure, BLS was consistently plagued by technical errors and leaks of sensitive information:
The Washington Post, 8/28/24: “The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday that a technical issue caused delays last week in the scheduled release of jobs data that carried major implications for the economy and the presidential election. Outside parties, the BLS said, then got the data because of a lack of communication within the agency over how to respond to public inquiries … The episode is at least the third in a series of missteps this year that critics argue may undermine faith in the agency.”
The Washington Post, 8/28/24: “Last week’s episode involved data closely watched by economists, Wall Street traders, and Federal Reserve officials who are keeping close tabs on employment as they prepare to cut interest rates. The lapse happened just days before the Fed sent its strongest signal yet that it was time to take pressure off the economy, in large part because officials fear that the labor market is softening — so financial markets were anticipating the release even more than usual.”
The Washington Post, 8/28/24: “The job revisions for last year and early 2024 appeared on a government website about a half-hour after their scheduled release time. But despite the delay, a handful of financial firms were able to obtain the information — which showed the largest downward revision to annual job creation in 15 years — before it was posted publicly. The gaffe appeared to run counter to the nonpartisan statistical agency’s long-standing policies intended to prevent individual stakeholders, particularly financial traders, from gaining any edge by ensuring that information is made widely accessible to everyone at the same time.”
House Committee on Education and the Workforce, 12/10/24:
“In March [2024], news reports revealed a BLS economist shared nonpublic information with several Wall Street firms.”
“On May 15[, 2024], BLS accidentally loaded data files to its website 30 minutes prior to the scheduled release time of the consumer price index.”
“On August 21[, 2024], while the public waited for the release of the job numbers, some Wall Street firms got a head start as BLS released the numbers to firms that spoke to the agency by phone, potentially giving them an unfair advantage.”
“On August 26[, 2024], Chairwoman Foxx and Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions Subcommittee Chairman Bob Good (R-VA) called out the Biden-Harris administration for exaggerating job growth when revised BLS numbers proved an overestimate of more than 800,000 jobs.”
“On September 25[, 2024], to hold BLS accountable for its inability to ensure data is released uniformly and on time, Foxx and Good demanded answers from the Biden-Harris administration.”
“On October 25[, 2024], after BLS ignored the congressional request and additional disturbing reports surfaced in the press about BLS actions the day of the job numbers release on [August 21, 2024], the Committee reupped its oversight inquiry and sent a follow-up letter to BLS.”
Re job and earnings data, it is curious the BLS never publishes the aggregate data from the qtrly payroll reports every employer is required to file with Uncle Sam.
It seems that info would be of interest because it is real, factual data and not statistics massaged and derived from surveys that have steep declines in responses.
Jeff is more concerned now because republicans may start taking a page out of their playbook, like gerrymandering. He forgets the Trump wanted to stop all flights in and out of China and the US, but got a rash of pushback from democrats, even Pelosi went strolling through Chinatown with cameras in tow to tout how safe it was. The 2020 election was a farce and more information about democrat election malfeasance is still coming out. Biden practically allowed Putin to invade. Congress would not fund the wall, plus the ACLU with the Sierra Club filed lawsuits and injunctions from lefty federal judges stopped it. The funds saved by stopping the influx of illegal migrants who drain US taxpayer resources would pay for the wall alone.