The website formerly known as “FiveThirtyEight” published its official forecast model for the 2024 presidential election and declares Pennsylvania as the “tipping point” at this point of the campaign.
An American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging, 538 hopes to build on general election polling averages by asking not just what the best guess is about who is leading the presidential race today, but what range of outcomes are possible for the actual election in November.
As of this morning, President Joe Biden is projected to win the Keystone State 57 times out of 100 in its model run, while former President Donald Trump wins 43 times in the simulation of the 2024 presidential election.
“The 2024 presidential election starts out in our forecast as a toss-up. While former President Donald Trump has a lead in most key swing states, they are close enough that a small amount of movement — or the polls being a little too favorable to Republicans — could result in President Joe Biden’s reelection.”
In 538’s projection for all 50 states, Biden is projected to win 53 times out of 100 simulated runs with Trump winning 47 times. A third-party candidate wins less than one time out of 100.
Among the so-called “swing states,” Michigan and Wisconsin are both deemed better for Biden today than Pennsylvania. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina are perceived to be better for Trump on the latest run.
538 defines a state’s tipping-point chance as the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote, while its Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
As it pertains to the Commonwealth, Pennsylvania is viewed at the tipping point at 13.6 percent – well ahead of runner-up North Carolina (10.0 percent). And the state’s VPI is in the triple digits at 100 percent, more than 20 points higher than Florida and Texas.
538’s model is brand-new and the methodology can be found here.
Steve Ulrich is the managing editor of PoliticsPA.
This article was originally published in PoliticsPA.
“While former President Donald Trump has a lead in most key swing states, they are close enough that a small amount of movement — or the polls being a little too favorable to Republicans — could result in President Joe Biden’s reelection.”
A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOVEMENT [mo͞ovm(ə)nt] noun
1. automatically combining the verification processes of DMV registration and voter registration, by the Shapiro Administration COMBINED with impossible to track mail-in ballots.
2. Rigged election – but it’s so close!
3. 1210 AM and other RINOs will keep their heads in the sand regarding this automatic, flawed, voter registration issue of legal non-residents. Think there are more than 11,192 currently?
4. Somehow Trump, who was failing initially in the primaries until he could identify as a victim of Democrat lawfare, is the Republican nominee, and respectable and nice people hate him, so we are assured the rigged voting system is not rigged. But the USA already lost because the oligarchs arranged this scripted wrestling match… I mean Presidential election of two bumbling 80-somethings.
“2. Rigged election – but it’s so close!” – Not according to then Trump appointed U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr.
And in spite of Trump being a bumbling 80-something you are still going to vote for him.