William Hillman: Independent voters — the new key to victory in Pennsylvania elections

In Pennsylvania, a critical swing state with a history of deciding presidential elections, the political landscape is shifting. The gap between Democratic and Republican voter registrations has narrowed significantly, making independent and third-party voters an increasingly pivotal force in determining electoral outcomes. With approximately 1.4 million independent and other party-affiliated voters, this group now holds the key to victory in the Keystone State. This article explores the growing influence of independent voters, the challenges of mobilizing them, and the sophisticated voter turnout models needed to engage them effectively.

As of October 2024, the difference between Democratic and Republican voter registrations in Pennsylvania stands at roughly 300,000, a stark contrast to the nearly one million-voter advantage Democrats held a decade ago. By September 2024, Democrats accounted for 44 percent of registered voters (down from 51.2 percent in 2009), while Republicans held 40.2 percent (up from 36.9 percent in 2009). Meanwhile, independent and third-party voters have grown from 11.9 percent in 2009 to 15.7 percent in 2024, totaling approximately 1.4 million voters (1.1 million independents and 300,000 members of other parties).

This narrowing gap reflects a significant trend: the erosion of Democratic dominance and the rise of Republican registrations, particularly in rural and working-class counties. For instance, counties like Beaver, Fayette, and Westmoreland, once Democratic strongholds, have flipped to Republican majorities since 2015. However, the growing pool of independent voters introduces a new dynamic, as these voters are not reliably aligned with either major party.

With Pennsylvania’s total registered voter base exceeding 8.86 million in 2024, elections hinge on turnout. Historically, both parties have invested heavily in mobilizing their core supporters, spending millions to ensure their base shows up at the polls. For example, Democrats have expressed concern about low turnout in vote-rich Philadelphia, a critical stronghold, while Republicans have focused on energizing rural voters. Yet, the 1.4 million independent and third-party voters are often overlooked, despite their potential to tip the scales in closely contested races.

Independent voters are particularly significant in Pennsylvania due to the state’s closed primary system, which excludes them from choosing major party candidates in primaries. This system may discourage some voters from registering as independents, as they can switch party affiliations up to ten days before an election to participate in primaries before reverting to independent status. Despite this, the proportion of independent voters has steadily increased, signaling growing dissatisfaction with the two major parties.

Mobilizing independent voters is a complex task. Unlike party-affiliated voters, independents lack a clear ideological or partisan profile, making it difficult to predict their voting behavior. A deeper analysis of Pennsylvania’s voter registration statistics reveals no consistent party preference among independents. However, one trend stands out: Independents are slightly more likely to align with the majority party in their county. For example, an independent in heavily Democratic Allegheny County may lean Democratic, while one in Republican-dominated Westmoreland County may lean Republican.

This variability poses a challenge for campaigns. Targeting independents requires identifying those likely to support a candidate’s platform without inadvertently mobilizing voters for the opposition. Traditional campaign strategies, which rely on broad appeals to party loyalty, are often ineffective with this group. As Lara Putnam, a historian at the University of Pittsburgh, notes, voter registration data is “noisy” and influenced by factors beyond current political enthusiasm, such as demographic shifts and voter roll purges.

To effectively engage independent voters, campaigns must adopt data-driven, localized strategies. The former organization Market Research Foundation (MRF), once a leader in voter turnout modeling, developed an effective voter modeling program. They spent over two decades refining this process. MRF’s approach involves collecting thousands of data points on voters — demographics, voting history, and behavioral patterns — and creating predictive models at the census block level. These models were tested, adjusted, and retested to ensure accuracy.

A key insight from MRF’s work is that voter behavior is highly context-dependent. A model that identifies a pro-life Republican voter in one neighborhood may not apply just a few miles away due to differences in community values, socioeconomic factors, or cultural influences. This hyper-local approach contrasts with the one-size-fits-all models often employed by campaigns, which can lead to inefficiencies or even counterproductive outcomes, such as turning out voters who support the opposing candidate. Republicans, in particular, have struggled with this process. When they do target independents, they often rely on generic models that fail to account for regional variations, leading to disappointing results. Democrats, meanwhile, have historically focused on their base, but the shrinking registration gap means they can no longer afford to ignore independents.

Recent voter registration trends underscore the growing importance of independents. Since January 2024, Pennsylvania has seen a surge in new voter registrations, with 281,861 new voters added by September 2, 2024. Of these, 38 percent registered as Republicans, 35 percent as Democrats, and 29 percent as independents or third-party voters. Notably, 61 percent of new registrants are under 30, a demographic that increasingly favors independent or unaffiliated status (23 percent of voters under 30 are independent). This trend suggests that younger voters, who are less tied to traditional party loyalties, will further amplify the influence of independents in future elections.

Automatic voter registration, implemented in Pennsylvania in September 2023, has also boosted sign-ups, with a 45 percent increase in registrations at driver’s license centers compared to two years prior. Interestingly, this system has slightly favored Republicans (34 percent of new registrants) and independents (35 percent) over Democrats (31 percent), challenging assumptions that it would disproportionately benefit Democrats.

As Pennsylvania’s political landscape evolves, independent and third-party voters are emerging as the decisive factor in elections. With the Democratic-Republican registration gap at its narrowest in decades, the 1.4 million independent and other party voters represent a critical opportunity — and challenge — for both parties. Campaigns must build on the work of MRF and move beyond traditional mobilization tactics, investing in sophisticated, localized voter turnout models to effectively engage this group. Organizations like the Market Research Foundation demonstrate the value of data-driven, hyper-local strategies in identifying and mobilizing supportive independents. For Republicans, in particular, refining their approach to independent voters is essential to avoid falling short in future elections. As Pennsylvania remains a battleground state, the party that masters the art of winning over independents will likely claim victory in 2024 and beyond.

William Hillman has worked as a political consultant throughout the country for 30 years.

This story first appeared in the Bucks County Independence.