Steve Ulrich: Ten things I think I think

It’s the middle of July … hottest it has been in these parts in some time … and the wettest as well.

It has given yours truly a chance to think … think about where we are today as a community, as a Commonwealth, and as a country.

And here are the ten things I think I think.

1. The “Big Beautiful Bill” will not be so big, nor so beautiful, next fall

Pennsylvania will have seventeen congressional seats on the ballot in 2026 and it is hard to imagine that those “yes” votes on the OBB by incumbents won’t be used against them by their opponents. The albatross will be hung around those Republicans, especially in the swing congressional districts in the Lehigh Valley, NEPA, and the capital region. Will the voters, who sent Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-07) to Washington by about 4,000 votes, send him back? What about Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-08) who won his election by 6,000 or Rep. Scott Perry (R-10) who defeated his opponent by 5,000? Will they remember the vote that Democrats say slashed so many programs to help Pennsylvanians? Will they care?

2. Brian Fitzpatrick may have the toughest reelection campaign of all

The Bucks County Republican was one of two “no” votes from the GOP delegation on the OBB and has already drawn the ire of President Donald Trump. Fitzpatrick has been in the crosshairs of Democratic strategists for years and has continued to return to Congress each cycle. But what kind of support could be expect from Trump at this point? Will the president decide that holding onto the majority in the House is more important than fealty to him? I have yet to see an example where that holds true.

3. Governor Josh Shapiro appears on the fast track to reelection

The Democrat has done little wrong in the public’s eye since taking over in Harrisburg. A recent Morning Consult poll showed his approval rating among Pennsylvanians at 61 percent with a +34 favorability mark. Those are huge numbers at the two-and-a-half year mark. With a deal with Amazon complete, $92 billion in new investments in the Commonwealth in AI and energy, and an $11 million war chest in the bank, Shapiro will be difficult for any GOP opponent to take down. Now, about another late budget …

4. The FY26 budget will be complete by the end of next week

No, I don’t have any inside information. Just a gut feeling, as the Senate is currently positioning budgetary legislation for once an agreement is reached. This will be the third time in three sessions that the Governor and the legislature have been unable to deliver a completed budget by the June 30 statutory date. If anything, this could be an Achilles heel for Shapiro. The governor often speaks of being one of three governors with a divided legislature. Are voters listening?

5. The governor’s coattails. How long could they be?

Should Shapiro receive another four-year term in the governor’s mansion, will he be able to carry fellow Democrats across the finish line to victory as well? We’re looking at you Bob Harvie in PA-01 and Janelle Stelson in PA-10. Stelson received a rousing endorsement from Shapiro, as well as Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, in recent days in her quest to oust Scott Perry. What about the survivor of the Democratic primary in PA-07 among Lamont McClure, Carol Obando-Derstine and Ryan Crosswell? Not to mention that 203 seats in the state House and 25 seats in the state Senate will be up for grabs? Can Dems keep the House? Could the GOP lose the Senate? Coattails could make all the difference.

6. The Energy and Innovation Summit was a huge success

It looks like the rest of the country now understands what we in Pennsylvania have known forever … we have the power to drive America. Kudos to Sen. Dave McCormick for his coordination of the inaugural event at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. Thank you to those CEO’s who announced major investments in the Commonwealth. Certainly President Trump’s appearance had an impact as well, driving the eyes of a hungry media to western Pennsylvania. $92 billion is nothing to sneeze at and positions Pennsylvania to be a leader in the AI and date center revolution in the country.

7. Dan Meuser’s opt-out for the governor’s race clears the field for Stacy Garrity

The contest for the GOP gubernatorial nomination was reduced by one recently when Rep. Dan Meuser (R-09) opted out of a campaign for the state’s highest office. That effectively clears the runway for Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity to be her party’s nominee, although state Sen. Doug Mastriano still hints at another run. The Pennsylvania GOP wants to endorse at its September meeting so expect an announcement from Garrity in early August.

8. It’s time for independent voters to have a say in Pennsylvania’s primaries

I have heard both sides. Yes, the parties should be permitted to select candidates from among their own ranks. But the parties have done this to themselves with silly gerrymandering and political grandstanding. By carving up districts to protect their own, parties have closed the door on large segments of the population from having a say in their elected representatives. Easy example: in the large Democratic conclave of Philadelphia where primaries often determine the November winner, Republicans are shut out until it’s too late. Flip side: pick any “red” county in the Commonwealth and ask yourself if Dems have a say in those positions. And independents are shut out completely. Primary elections were not created by our Founding Fathers. That dates to 1916 when 25 states created presidential primary laws. Allow a registered voter to select one party or the other when casting a primary ballot. Democracy in action.

9. The General Assembly could correct some problems with Pennsylvania elections. It just doesn’t want to

Sensible legislation has been written and put on the shelf in the past. Legislation to correct flaws in the system has been written and currently remains “in committee.” Sometimes it appears to be a budget gambit. Sometimes it seems like the General Assembly wants the courts to solve their problem. Other times it appears to have the same problem as Daylight Savings Time, i.e. it’s only an issue when it comes up. Let’s complain for a day or two and then move on. Suffice it to say that “billable hours” for attorneys remain undefeated.

10. The Phillies will make a big move at the trade deadline

Brilliant, Steve. Just like everyone else expects. This Phillies team lacks something. It is not starting pitching. Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Christopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo have been great. Only one thing to say about Kyle Schwarber – sign the man! My big three things to fix are heart, hitting and the bullpen, not in that order. Many like manager Rob Thomson’s steady hand, but admit it, wouldn’t you like to see a little more fire from the lineup? Another right-handed bat would be helpful, but the biggest problem is the back end of the bullpen. The Phils may have to say goodbye to promising prospects such as Justin Crawford and Aidan Miller to make a run at a top-flight closer. Are you all in for 2025? We’re about to find out if President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski is?

Steve Ulrich is the managing editor of PoliticsPA, where this article first appeared.