Seth Higgins: Two years later, what has Doug Mastriano learned?

A little more than two years ago, I asked the readers of Broad + Liberty, “If Mastriano can’t learn, will we?” 

Unfortunately, Pennsylvanians might have to answer what was supposed to be a hypothetical question. Senator Doug Mastriano is weighing another run for governor in 2026. Pennsylvanians, particularly GOP primary voters, may soon reveal whether they are able to learn from devastating election results.

But first, how did we get here?

I originally posed this question because after now-Governor Josh Shapiro delivered an electoral thrashing to State Senator Mastriano in 2022, Mastriano quickly offered excuse after excuse for his defeat. He also, astonishingly, managed to take pride in his otherwise abysmal performance.

As I noted at the time, shortly after the election Senator Mastriano groaned on Facebook Live that, “We got beat up by a renowned Republican organization based out of Harrisburg that spent millions of dollars trying to destroy us and our campaign, which is obviously unacceptable.” He also vented on a talk radio show that, “There was damage done [in the primary] to my reach and influence with other Republicans by being bashed with $16 million of PAC money, you know, in support of McSwain against me.”

But it turns out the horrendous night for Pennsylvania’s Republicans in the 2022 midterms had a silver lining. Well, at least as far as Senator Mastriano is concerned. He proudly noted, “We have a record 2.2, almost 2.3 million, people that voted for me and Carrie DelRosso. That is a record for a Republican running for governor of the state of Pennsylvania. We got out the vote, we did our part.”

Let’s pause for a moment to observe just how strange this is. It is equivalent to an NFL team bragging that it scored the most points of any team to lose the Super Bowl. Who cares?

That said, his statements and behavior more than two years ago led to my final observation and subsequent question: “Doug is incapable of change, unwilling to learn the hard lessons of defeat, and unable to accept responsibility for his loss. The question remains, will voters in Pennsylvania do the same, or are Pennsylvania Republicans finally ready to turn the corner?”

That statement about Doug was incomplete. It turns out he’s willing to engage in selective learning. As I noted earlier, Senator Mastriano enjoys boasting about his electoral defeat. However, see if you spot the difference in his Facebook post from March 5, 2025:

His “record for a Republican running for governor of the state of Pennsylvania” has evolved into him “outperforming EVERY R Gubernatorial candidate in our lifetime for Pennsylvania.” What gives?

It might have something to do with what I wrote about Senator Mastriano’s defeat at the time. I noted, “Doug also doesn’t get the record straight about his supposed record setting night: Republican candidate Bill Scranton won the 1962 gubernatorial election with more than 2.4 million votes.”

Perhaps Senator Mastriano stumbled upon my article, learned some facts, but decided against gaining any wisdom.

Regardless, as I observed, his learning is selective in nature. Let’s add more data to his chart:

Senator Mastriano had a terrible performance in 2022. No, it was not the worst we’ve seen in recent decades, but awful, nonetheless.

Another lesson Senator Mastriano, and all Republicans for that matter, should have taken from the 2022 midterms is that President Trump cannot be replicated. That year, several Republican candidates across the country ran for office by attempting to mimic Trump’s combative, brash style. Senator Mastriano was among them. This strategy, in nearly all cases, failed.

Whether he is to one’s liking or not, Trump is a singular political force.

However, as Senator Mastriano tests the waters for a 2026 gubernatorial run, he is once again attempting to duplicate Trump’s secret sauce. On March 3, during an interview with Harrisburg’s WHP 580, Senator Mastriano proposed creating a Pennsylvania version of President Trump’s waste hunting Department of Government Efficiency, better known as DOGE.

To his credit, Senator Mastriano’s outline of DOGE takes on a different structure by involving the state legislature and other offices. He isn’t offering a clone. Elsewhere in the interview, however, he repeats his tendency to glom onto the Trumpian zeitgeist rather than charting a path of his own.

When discussing his thoughts on a run for governor in 2026, he noted the importance of embracing mail-in ballots, just as Trump did in his 2024 return to the White House. Senator Mastriano contrasted this with Trump’s failed strategy in 2020 that discouraged the use of mail-in ballots, which Senator Mastriano predictably but mistakenly aped in 2022.

A politician who is a step behind is a step out-of-touch. This hasn’t dawned on Mastriano.

Senator Mastriano finished the interview by observing that “losing one race does not make you unviable” as a candidate. He explained this conclusion by mentioning that Bob Casey, Sr. ran for governor unsuccessfully three times before winning his fourth attempt for that office in 1986. Senator Mastriano then predicted, “We’re going to win on this second try.”

Once more, Senator Mastriano is engaged in selective learning. Bob Casey, Sr. lost the Democratic primary three times before finding success on his fourth bid. The senior Casey never lost a race for governor in the general election. This means his failures, unlike Mastriano’s, never harmed his party.

Despite his confidence, Mastriano never explained how he would make up the nearly 800,000-vote deficit from his attempt in 2018 during a second run for governor. The closest he came was briefly acknowledging that he would have to embrace mail-in ballots during any future campaign. Recent history, however, demonstrates that this would not be anywhere near enough to take down Governor Shapiro in a 2026 rematch. President Trump increased his vote share in Pennsylvania from 2020 to 2024 by approximately 166,000 votes. This is why simply parroting Trump’s strategy, as Mastriano suggested he’d do, would not be sufficient.

What’s more, Mastriano cannot even bank on 2026 being a favorable electoral environment in Pennsylvania. Incumbent governors in Pennsylvania typically increase their margin of victory during their reelection. Additionally, the party that controls the White House normally suffers electoral setbacks during midterm elections. This confluence of factors means mail-in ballots and the political climate are not enough to carry Mastriano across the finish line.

But mere facts do not keep Senator Mastriano from a bad idea. After all, historical lessons only matter to someone naive enough to put their party and state above their personal ambitions. 

My observation and corresponding question from two years ago were inaccurate on two counts. First, as Senator Mastriano continues to contemplate another run for governor, the question is shifting from hypothetical to actual. Second, as mentioned, Senator Mastriano is capable of learning facts, just not lessons. Given this bleak turn of events, my question requires a minor revision: “If Mastriano can’t learn lessons from his 2022 gubernatorial defeat, can Pennsylvania’s Republican primary voters?”

Just because Senator Mastriano is impervious to hard truths doesn’t mean Pennsylvania’s Republicans have to be. That choice may soon be theirs to make. 

Seth Higgins, a native of Saint Marys, Pennsylvania, specializes in bringing conservative thought to local government. Seth is a former Tablet Magazine Fellow and a former Krauthammer Fellow with The Tikvah Fund.