Philadelphia’s local politicians took a victory lap in the media, touting stats that the city’s 2024 homicide rate dropped to the lowest point it has been in a decade. The media has covered this as a decrease in violent crime, noting the largest drop in gun violence of all major U.S. cities but is the 50 percent drop in murders from three years ago due to increasing public safety, or better medicine at the city’s hospitals?

Conflicting numbers

In 2017, when District Attorney Larry Krasner ran for office, Philadelphia saw 315 murders, which climbed to 353 in his first year, peaking at 559 in 2021. In 2023, the city saw 410 murders, but last year it fell to only 269, a drop of about 40 percent from the prior year.

In the press, Krasner touted his funding of nonprofit anti-violence groups across the city for their work to help prevent crime. “We’re talking about sparing a life every day, every day because of the incredibly important work that is done at many different levels with prevention, with enforcement,” Krasner said Monday, Dec. 30, 2024. “That, frankly, is a surprise all by itself because we’re the brokest to the ten largest cities,” continued Krasner. 

In the first month and a half of 2025, the downward trend in murders continues with 22 homicides YTD, showing a 35 percent decrease. However, despite the drop in murder statistics, there have been more than 1,281 nonfatal violent crimes reported by police so far this year, nearly a 49 percent increase. So what explains this sharp contrast?

How has crime really dropped?

According to the National Institutes of Health, advancements in emergency medical care have significantly improved the survival rates of individuals suffering from violent assaults. This progress has led to a notable decrease in homicide rates, as many incidents that might have resulted in death in the past are now classified as aggravated assaults due to successful medical interventions. Consequently, while the number of murders has declined, the overall rate of violent crime, encompassing both homicides and assaults, may not have experienced a corresponding decrease.

A study examining homicide rates across Pennsylvania counties from 2013 to 2019 found that greater access to emergency hospital services was associated with lower homicide rates, even when accounting for socio-economic factors and spatial contiguity of homicides. This suggests that improved emergency care can effectively reduce fatalities from violent incidents, thereby decreasing the homicide rate.

In Philadelphia, recent crime statistics illustrate this phenomenon. As of February 6, 2025, the city reported 22 homicides, reflecting an 18.52 percent year-to-date decrease. However, during the same period, total violent crimes increased by 48.13 percent, with 1,151 incidents reported. This disparity indicates that while fewer violent encounters are resulting in death, the overall occurrence of violent incidents has risen.

The decline in homicides can be attributed to several factors, including advancements in emergency medical services, improved trauma care, and faster response times. These improvements enable medical professionals to treat life-threatening injuries more effectively, increasing the likelihood of survival for victims of violent assaults.

The shift presents a complex challenge. The reduction in homicide rates may create a false sense of security, leading the public and policymakers to believe that violent crime is decreasing overall. In reality, the prevalence of violent incidents remains high, but the outcomes have changed due to medical interventions. 

This misconception can have significant implications for public safety strategies and resource allocation. If the focus is solely on homicide rates as a measure of violent crime, other serious offenses, such as aggravated assaults, may not receive adequate attention. It’s crucial for law enforcement agencies and policymakers to consider the broader spectrum of violent crime and recognize that a decrease in homicides does not necessarily equate to a safer environment.

Moreover, the reliance on improved medical care to mitigate the fatal outcomes of violent incidents should not overshadow the need for comprehensive violence prevention strategies. Efforts to address the root causes of violence, such as poverty, education disparities, and access to mental health services, remain essential. Preventing violent incidents from occurring in the first place is a more effective long-term solution than relying on medical interventions

Based in Philadelphia, A. Benjamin Mannes is a consultant and subject matter expert in security and criminal justice reform based on his own experiences on both sides of the criminal justice system. He is a corporate compliance executive who has served as a federal and municipal law enforcement officer, and as the former Director, Office of Investigations with the American Board of Internal Medicine. @PublicSafetySME