Pennsylvania is a swing state but Philadelphia is very much not a swing county. While the commonwealth has flipped back and forth for the past four election cycles, its largest city has not voted for a Republican President since 1932. 

But even so, changes in Philadelphia affect the rest of the state, and starting with a worst-ever 13.97 percent of the vote in 2012, Republicans have done better in the city each time they nominated Donald Trump. 

In 2016, Trump raised the GOP share to 15.32 percent (108,748 votes) as he carried the state and the country. In 2020, he lost Pennsylvania and was turfed out of the White House, but his percentage of the vote in Philly actually improved to 17.86 percent (132,870 votes). 

Here is a map of Trump’s vote in the city in 2020:

And here is the map of Trump’s vote in 2024, when he won 20.1 percent, the best for a Republican presidential candidate since 1992, with a total (still unofficial) of 142,057 votes.

At first glance, there is not much difference between them. But the additional 14,744 votes he received in the city — and the 11,013 fewer votes Kamala Harris received than Joe Biden’s 2020 total — were an important part of Trump’s 131,359-vote margin statewide. The improved showing for Republicans helped Dave McCormick prevail in his race against Senator Bob Casey, as well.

It can be better illustrated by showing which areas shifted in which direction, which is depicted in the map below.

Most precincts moved slightly to the right, but the change was not uniform across the city. In the gentrifying parts of South Philly, Manayunk, and the river wards, Harris even gained over Biden. But across the rest of the city, the question was one of whether Trump gained a little or a lot. 

Where did he gain a lot? Many of the best areas for Trump in 2020 were even better for him in 2024. The biggest Republican gain in any precinct was found in 58-44 in the far Northeast, which was 16.47 percent more in favor of Trump than it was four years ago. 

Other gains were in solidly Democratic areas that just became somewhat less solid. The racially and ethnically diverse 53rd and 54th wards in the lower Northeast remained in the Democratic column, but slighted sharply in Trump’s favor. Likewise in the Hispanic sections of North Philadelphia, especially the 7th, 19th, 33rd, and 42nd wards, Trump gained heavily. 

Perhaps more surprising was the shift in University City, perhaps the most progressive neighborhood in Philadelphia. There, Trump notched some significant gains in his share of the two-party vote. But the answer to this riddle is not that the far-left is going right, but rather that they are going farther left.

Here is a map of the vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein in 2024:

Two areas of concentration standout. The first, unsurprisingly, is in West Philadelphia, especially around University City and Powelton Village. Here, in Penn and Drexel’s ever-expanding footprint, is the beating heart of Philly progressivism (with apologies to Mount Airy). It was easily Stein’s best neighborhood, home to many voters who find themselves to the left of the Democratic Party in many ways.

The other, less anticipated area of Green Party strength is in Northeast Philadelphia around Cottman Avenue. This is likely an artifact of the increased numbers of Arab-Americans in that area, as well as perhaps Muslims of other ethnicities. For voters whose most important issue was the Middle East, this section was a place where Harris’s equivocation on the Gaza conflict worked against her.

The Northeast trended away from Democrats in two different ways, a few people voting for the far-left Greens and many more switching to the right and voting Republican. Was it enough to flip the entire section? 

No, but Trump came much closer. Northeast Philadelphia — defined here as the entire section north of the Frankford and Tacony Creeks — went to Harris by a margin of 55.7-42.8, with the remaining 1.5 percent going to third-party candidates.

Republicans’ improved performance there was not restricted to the top of the ticket. In the 5th state senate district race, Republican Joe Picozzi unseated troubled Democratic incumbent Jimmy Dillon to take the seat back for Republicans for the first time since Northeast Philly’s great defender, Hank Salvatore, held it from 1985 to 2001. It’s another sign of the continuing shift in the parties and the growth of the Republicans’ multi-ethnic, working-class coalition.

Kyle Sammin is the managing editor of Broad + Liberty.