Guy Ciarrocchi: Lies, damn lies, and Biden/Harris statistics
Gaslighting: telling someone to trust what they’re being told — and ignore the reality that they see and hear.
The idea that the government would do it to its own citizens makes you think about a sci-fi movie, or life in a totalitarian nation like North Korea, China or the former Soviet Union. Citizens are kept ignorant so that they wouldn’t know how bad their lives are. And so that the decisions of the leaders are never questioned. Worse, it causes division among fellow citizens because anyone questioning what the government tells them is portrayed as disloyal, ignorant — or “weird.”
That the Biden/Harris administration would mislead us on so much for so long is nothing short of gaslighting. They repeatedly work to make us believe an alternate reality based on “statistics” — and demand that we ignore the obvious contradictions in what we are experiencing in our daily lives. That those in power are doing this to win, to retain and expand their power and those of their political allies is a tragic turning point in American history. Not campaign history: American history.
Mark Twain wrote that there are three types of lies: “Lies, damned lies, and statistics.” It makes you wonder if Twain would have created a fourth category if he ever met Joe Biden or Kamala Harris
One misstep is an accident. Two times could be sloppiness. But what do you call multiple, repeated “misstatements” and redefinitions about the number of jobs created, about what the real rate of inflation is, and about the number of crimes being committed — all while selling the “inaccurate” data as support for their re-election?
Why is it that major statistics are always “mistaken” or being redefined so that the Biden/Harris administration looks better than the reality we are living in? That’s no accident. And, sorry, it’s not just politicians being politicians. It’s government’s attempt to create an alternate reality. It’s gaslighting.
The recent “correction” to the jobs report is the most brazen example — so far.
1.1 million jobs. That’s how many jobs the Biden administration “overestimated” had been created in March. They just “rechecked” the math. Like an NFL referee: “Upon further review, the call on the field is overturned.” Oops!
For months, Biden/Harris have been touting “historic” job growth with press conferences, “experts” and charts. Biden routinely tweets — his staff tweets — that Biden/Harris created more jobs than any president — and tons more than Trump. And, of course, it’s been trumpeted in legacy newspapers, television stations and on social media. Jobs. Jobs. Jobs!
But in the midst of Kamala Harris’s “joyful” DNC euphoria, it was “corrected” by their own Department of Labor: the March jobs numbers were “off.” Economist Stephen Moore writes that the White House actually missed the mark by 1.1 million jobs. That is to say, there are 1.1 million less people working than they told us initially.
(By the way, it’s a special kind of misleading — or having no respect for your fellow Americans — to compare job growth in 2023 or 2024 to 2020 or 2021. You don’t need an MBA from Wharton — or even a reputable college — to understand that Biden/Harris ought not “spike the football” because their economy is growing faster compared to a pandemic with government imposed lockdowns, when they paid people not to work.)
It’s not the only time they’ve been wrong on jobs numbers — always overestimating. They’ve also been misleading us on inflation. And, they’re misleading us — at best — when it comes to crime. (Spoiler alert: it’s not going down.)
They tried to redefine what “inflation” is. Since 2021, Biden/Harris tried to tell us that there was no inflation. Then, it was “transitory.” Last try: change what’s counted in determining inflation.
We saw that gasoline went from about $2 to $5. It was even more in California, where the trucks receive and transport all the goods we import from China, Japan, and India — diesel broke $7. Americans struggled to heat their homes or keep the lights on while utility bills tripled for many families.
We saw that our groceries kept getting more expensive — even Kamala acknowledges that bread went up 50 percent.
But while some analysts and GOP officials complained about inflation rates of 14 to 20 percent or more, the White House — and all of their “experts” and media supporters — kept telling us it wasn’t that bad. Trust us, they said, inflation was actually lower.
Then, we learned that they were citing “core inflation.” That’s the “academics” rate of inflation — if you don’t count groceries or energy. Unbelievable! That’s like calculating your monthly mortgage payments — if you don’t include the money you owe the bank!
Maybe at Ivy League universities — or “expert” conferences in Davos — they can ponder “core inflation.” But at our kitchen tables, groceries, gasoline, and heating our homes count as real bills. And when those things rise up to 120 percent more, it matters to us.
(This misleading doesn’t even address the Biden/Harris team reporting that “inflation is down,” when what they really mean — and the data proves — is that prices are rising slower. Yippee!)
Crime. Most Americans sense that crime is going up. Many have stopped going into cities or avoiding shopping at night in nearby suburbs. Yet, Biden/Harris, their “experts” and media cheerleaders keep telling us — yet, again — trust the data. Crime is going down — it’s even better than when Trump was President.
Well, maybe not. Lies, damned lies, and what goes into statistics.
Over the last few years, as politics and left-wing ideology have taken over prosecutors’ offices, some crimes aren’t “crimes” any more. Couple that with multiple reporting databases and the White House gets to pick and choose to promote the story they want.
First, Larry Krasner and his ilk across the nation have legalized shoplifting — up to as high as $999. So, those crimes aren’t “crimes.” Second, more felonies are being reclassified as misdemeanors. Presto! Fewer felonies. And finally, as the FBI changes its national crimes database, some communities aren’t sending in the new-style reports — or, aren’t sending anything at all. Cities like Pittsburgh are not included in state or national crimes data. And, yes, crime is even higher in Radnor than in 2021.
Voters have a decision to make. We see the effects of inflation in our daily lives, many sense economic unease at their workplaces, and many don’t feel safe visiting cities, or nearby suburbs, due to the fear of violent crime.
Who do we trust to fix this mess?
The people, the party, and the candidates who tried to make us believe that these problems didn’t exist — and, actually created those problems.
Or, the people, the Party and candidates who have recognized the problems we’re facing, understand the harm, and are committed to fixing them.
Do you trust the gaslighters?
Guy Ciarrocchi is a Senior Fellow with the Commonwealth Foundation. He writes for Broad + Liberty and RealClear Pennsylvania. Follow Guy @PaSuburbsGuy.
“Crime. Most Americans sense that crime is going up. Many have stopped going into cities or avoiding shopping at night in nearby suburbs” Do you have any actual proof to back this up?
“We saw that gasoline went from about $2 to $5.” – The President does not set the price of gas or groceries, greedy CEO’s are responsible for that. Greedy CEO’s also determine the wages of their employees which have not risen with inflation.
“And, yes, crime is even higher in Radnor than in 2021” – I live in Radnor for over 20 years and have not seen or heard of rising crime, so you are gaslighting me. Because you are “telling someone to trust what they’re being told — and ignore the reality that they see and hear.”
You can’t see much crime from your mom’s basement typing on her computer. Evidently you don’t watch the news. Leftist DAs are not reporting crime statistics. LOOK IT UP.
The president’s policies have a direct effect on oil and grocery prices by cutting off oil and grain supplies. Supporting a war in Ukraine and exporting oil and coal while chasing green energy has quadrupled the cost of electricity. Diesel fuel cost affects crops and groceries.
Yes!! Thank you for puncturing this drivel!
I live in Montgomery County in a 2,200 square foot home, and I have maintained my KwH and Ccf data for my home since we moved into it in 2001. I compared the cost of heating and cooling it over the years of the Biden administration with the same period in the Trump administration. Please note that I shop my rates and usually sign up for two-year periods. I compared the total delivery cost per KwH and Ccf for the Biden years versus the Trump years and found the following:
1. If I paid the same utility rates for 2021 as I did in 2017 my total bill for the year would have been $415.42 lower. As it was, I paid 15% more in 2021 than I would have if the same rates existed as they did in 2017.
2. If I paid the same utility rates for 2022 as I did in 2018 my total bill for the year would have been $1,300.20 lower. Therefore, I paid 45% more in 2022 than I would have if the same rates existed as they did in 2018.
3. Repeating the same analysis for 2023 against 2019 showed that my total bill for the year would have been $1,161.10 lower. Therefore, I paid 44% more in 2023 than I would have if the same rates existed as they did in 2019.
4. Repeating the same analysis for 2024 against 2020 shows that my bill for the first six-month period would have been $562.37 lower. Therefore, I paid 37% more in 2023 than I would have if the same rates existed as they did in 2020.
Inflation is a tax on everyone, but it is most onerous on those who are in the middle and lower economic strata. I see no hope of this trend being substantially blunted if there is no change in the leadership of the Nation.
what an exceptionally dense and convoluted methodology!
Compare year to year, same consumption, and you have something! That is actually what the BLS does.
Not contesting that prices have gone up — that is a generally a no-brainer statement and has been for most of my life. But picking random info to back up your thesis simply does not work.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics –
Total Civilian Non-Farm Labor Force Employment in the year 2000 = 161,682,092.
Most recently reported Total Civilian Non-Farm Labor Force Employment = 161,270,495
Posting stats without context doesn’t lead to real understanding of the point you try to make. Posting incorrect stats is, at the least, misleading.
From the actual BLS website:
total nonfarm employment (in thousands)
seasonally adjusted
July 2000 132,228
July 2024 158,445 (preliminary)
not seasonally adjusted
July 2000 131,997
July 2024 158,445 (preliminary)
The July 2024 preliminary numbers are the highest in the 2000’s.
Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Inflation Calculator – $10.00 worth of consumer goods in purchased in January 2021, now goes for $12.02. That’s 20% more for consumer goods.
To quote the Mr. Ciarrocchi “Mark Twain wrote that there are three types of lies: “Lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Sounds like you are lying instead of trusting what I see and hear. Please tell me how the President and not corporate CEO’s control the cost of energy.
The statistics I used are from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. They are the official numbers from the US Government. I am using the data that is available to all citizens. The numbers are what the numbers are and they are the government’s reporting of the economic consequences of decisions made. Please feel free to challenge the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics data – but do not make the claim that I have lied in citing them. You can go to the source yourself and see. If they are lies then our government is the source of the lies. Not the folks who only read the data.
According to the author of this article we should not trust statistics, only what we can see and hear. So why should I trust your government statistics? This is the same Department of Labor that had to issue a correction over the number of new jobs created.
If you don’t trust the statistics, be safe and assume that they should be doubled., which means that it is way worse than they are reporting.
You have picked and chosen stats and, in the case of the nonfarm employment data, I will be most charitable in saying your were wrong. So, at least ONE person who only reads the data is wrong.
FedUp – The entire point that the author is making is, do not trust government statistics when it comes to President Biden. So why should I trust government statistics when you use them and ignore the reality that I see and hear.
I told you what to do with the statistics being putout by the gov.
In what universe does your reality see or heartbeat agrees with them?
*hear
Do you understand that the point that the author is trying to make is that you can’t trust statistics when President Biden uses them. So the same rule also applies when you do it. Why should I assume that your statistics should be doubled, just because you say so.
Yes – i do.
Do you?
All politicians use bogus stats. Now write an article about all Trump’s lies. Can’t do that can you?
He can’t because Guy is can’t actually talk about the real issues or Trump. He’s a denier. I’d expect more from a lawyer, but he probably slept through his ethics class.
The problem in Pennsylvania is most women want abortion, they care more about reproductive rights than the Bill of rights. The SCOTUS should have left the abortion issue alone, because this only hurts Republicans going forward. It’s doesn’t matter to women in the collar counties that crime is on the rise and that there are criminals coming across the border and taking over peoples residents like the recent attack in Colorado, they aren’t concerned about the economy, or the fact we are becoming a third world country. They’ll argue the same liberal talking points, repeating the same lies that the media and Biden/ Harris administration have conditioned them to. They’ve been gaslighted so long they believe their own lies. On Facebook the Inquirer already has post from local women talking about voting democrat down ballot in November.
Maybe after 4 years of Harris this country will be a third world country, unrecognizable and these women who trusted their government, will finally realize they were used and abused by the people they voted for but by then there will be no recovery for American.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics does what it says it does. Mr. Chiarrocchi misstates those statistics, fails to understand methodology, and provides proof-less assertions about nefarious intentions.
BLS publishes a preliminary estimate of revisions to nonfarm employment levels each year. The methodology is published. It happens every year when better data are available and the level is recalculated on a preliminary basis; the final will be available in February. They are never precise, they can’t be. They are based on a sample of employers, not the universe. Any sample introduces error. BLS can’t afford to collect employment data from every employer every month and it is unlikely that all would voluntarily submit them. In fact, one of the reasons for the annual revisions is that data are submitted late or not at all by the volunteering companies. Some firms go out of business while others start new businesses and couldn’t be counted in the samples.
Every quarter, businesses report data for Unemployment Insurance to their states. That quarterly data takes a good while to verify but then becomes part of the basis for adjusting those sample-based estimates to account for better information on the reality of the employment situation. Some years, the revision is upward, others downward.
This year, it was less than 900,000 (not 1.1 million) or 0.5 percent down. You can read the actual announcement here: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm
A good, quick analysis of the revision is worth the read: https://cepr.net/mixed-story-what-the-revision-to-the-jobs-data-means/
My favorite part, a bit of tongue in cheek but revelatory prose, is: “If the Biden-Harris administration had the ability to cook the job numbers, do we think they are too stupid to realize that they should keep cooking them at least through November? Seriously, do we think they are total morons? If you’ve been cooking the numbers for twenty months, wouldn’t you keep cooking them until Election Day?”
While Biden and Harris and a ton of others misstate that inflation is going down when they really mean the rate is decreasing, this is an exceptionally common way of describing the situation and the reality is that inflation is diminishing — technically, disinflation. It does not mean that prices are returning to some previous point or below which would be deflation and which can have harrowing impacts on the economy.
Inflation has been happening, at slower and faster paces, since before the BLS started measuring it as a crucial information source during the 1st World War. Consistent statistics have proven far better at understanding the situation than dead reconning or putting your wet finger in the air.
The BLS changed no methodology to change perception. Not to say that they are not in a constant battle to improve the accuracy and efficiency of their statistics because they do which is why we can now see the price increases of computers but not black and white televisions.
BLS has not substituted the core rate for the all-items index. Both are published and both tell important stories. Putting out into the universe the misinformation that the BLS has stripped data of food and energy at a time when they accounted for price increases that everyone sees is misleading at best.
As we despair, try looking at some stats with a bit of context. The average price of a gallon on unleaded regular gas was $3.622 a gallon in July 2024 down from a record peak of $5.058 in June 2023. High prices but how about some historical context?
From May of 2008 until July of 2014, a gallon of unleaded regular gas topped $3.622 25 times. The country did not end. I won’t point by point for all 25, but just the first time it topped it in each year and compared it to the average hourly earnings that month.
2008 May $3.764 earnings $21.47
2011 April $3.816 $22.91
2012 May $3.868 $23.40
2013 Feb $3.693 $23.78
2014 Apr $3.659 $24.34
Now, the average hourly earnings was $35.07 in July. In those prior years, the gallon of gas accounted for between 15 to 18 percent of an hour’s pay. In 2024, it was only 10 percent.
It isn’t always easy or pretty. Being unemployed or paying more is a serious problem. But as a country, we are survivors. Of course, it is better to look at it with clear eyes and consistent and objective statistics.
“Do you trust the gaslighters?”
Are you asking if I trust you? The answer is no.